Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.323 — Matt Kemp batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.319 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Didi Gregorius batting against Rick Porcello
0.312 — Buster Posey batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.312 — Chris Owings batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Brandon Drury batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.310 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.305 — Aaron Judge batting against Rick Porcello

Batters are hitting .307 against Porcello with a .337 OBP. That means a high percentage of his BFP end in a hit. The Yankees have a few players with high hit averages as well, and it’s nice to see Aaron Judge start to work his way into these discussions.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.304, 0.741 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.319, 0.735 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.323, 0.735 — Matt Kemp batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.284, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Vargas.
0.328, 0.733 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.311, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.312, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.272, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.295, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.310, 0.730 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.

Charlie Blackmon at home against Trevor Bauer looks like a pretty good pick. Matt Kemp and David Peralta tie for the consensus pick. I’m very impressed that Murphy makes the top ten as he faces Kershaw this afternoon.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann	31
Michael Freeman	29
Trevor Plouffe	26
Logan Forsythe	25
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Jose Reyes	18
Matthew Szczur	15
Greg Bird	15
Franklin Gutierrez	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Yangervis Solarte	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Jeff Mathis	13
J.J. Hardy	13
Raimel Tapia	13
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Kurt Suzuki	12
Patrick Kivlehan	12
Michael Martinez	12
David Peralta	11
Jesus Sucre	11
Craig Gentry	11
Rio Ruiz	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Jose Peraza	11
Starling Marte	11
Gary Sanchez	11
Gregory Polanco	11
Christian Yelich	11
Lorenzo Cain	10
Tyler Collins	10
Stuart Turner	10
Darwin Barney	10
Ryan Schimpf	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Tyler Moore	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Kennys Vargas	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Ryan Braun	10
Peter Kozma	10

Good luck!

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