Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard
0.331 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard
0.330 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard
0.314 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Clayton Richard
0.313 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Hammel
0.313 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Gerrit Cole
0.312 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Joe Ross
0.307 — Robinson Cano batting against Kyle Gibson
0.305 — Nelson Cruz batting against Kyle Gibson
0.303 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole
0.303 — Jacob Lamb batting against Clayton Richard

Diamondbacks hitters dominate this list as Richard allows a .307 BA, and although this program doesn’t take this into account, .316 on the road. The stars of the Mariners look like a good bet as well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Alec Asher.
0.313, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Jason Hammel.
0.337, 0.743 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.330, 0.735 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard.
0.294, 0.731 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.294, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jon Lester.
0.331, 0.730 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard.
0.303, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.313, 0.722 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.290, 0.720 — Buster Posey batting against Paolo Espino.

It is somewhat amazing how sometimes these two systems see things very differently. Asher gives up hits at a much lower rate than Richard, but Murphy’s high one-year and three-year hit rates wash that out. David Peralta is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann	31
Michael Freeman	29
Logan Forsythe	28
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jose Reyes	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Jeff Mathis	17
Greg Bird	15
Christian Yelich	15
Rio Ruiz	15
Matthew Szczur	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Franklin Gutierrez	14
Raimel Tapia	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	13
Brandon Crawford	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Michael Martinez	12
Keon Broxton	12
Kurt Suzuki	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Leonys Martin	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Ryan Hanigan	11
Starling Marte	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Jose Peraza	11
Eric Young Jr.	11
Jesus Sucre	11
Craig Gentry	11
Deven Marrero	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Tyler Collins	10
Darwin Barney	10
Devin Mesoraco	10
Joshua Phegley	10
Orlando Calixte	10
Russell Martin	10
Derek Norris	10
Yandy Diaz	10
JaCoby Jones	10
Michael Taylor	10
Ryan Braun	10
Peter Kozma	10
Colby Rasmus	10
Kennys Vargas	10
Stuart Turner	10
Andres Blanco	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Matt Davidson	10

Good luck!

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