Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.359 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Nicolino
0.350 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Nicolino
0.338 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Justin Nicolino
0.335 — Nolan Arenado batting against Justin Nicolino
0.326 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz
0.320 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Steven Matz
0.310 — Nick Williams batting against Steven Matz
0.304 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton
0.298 — Jon Jay batting against Patrick Corbin
Nicolino sees his opponent batting lines go up every year. He doesn’t walk that many batters, probably due to his pitches being so good to hit, no one waits for the walk. He doesn’t strike out many batters at all, which means more balls in play, which means more a higher chance of a random hit.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.359, 0.774 — Gerardo Parra batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.350, 0.770 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.338, 0.760 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.295, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyson Ross.
0.302, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chris Stratton.
0.335, 0.750 — Nolan Arenado batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.326, 0.732 — Odubel Herrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.291, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.320, 0.724 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Steven Matz.
0.291, 0.721 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304, 0.721 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
The NN like batters against Nicolino as well. Parra is the unanimous pick. It’s a good day to double down on the Rockies. Joey Votto, who currently has the longest hit streak in the majors at 16, and is red hot, has a probability of .685 of getting a hit today. Note that in the streak, Votto struck out just six times, and is hitting .469. Votto owns one of the highest BABIPs among active players. Lowering his strikeout rate should bring his BA way up, and right now, that is what’s happening.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2uQ32u3
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