Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Moore.
0.290 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.285 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.279 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278 — Eric Hosmer batting against German Marquez.
0.278 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.

Gibson posted BABIPs of .330 in 2016 and .328 in 2017. Altuve posted BABIPs of .347 and .370 those same years. Neither of them sees a lot of strikeouts. It should be a good match up. Altuve is 5 for 15 against Gibson with no strikeouts in his career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.296, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.294, 0.720 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.290, 0.712 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.275, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Moore.
0.278, 0.698 — Eric Hosmer batting against German Marquez.
0.271, 0.697 — Dee Gordon batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.691 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.

Jose Ramirez’s slow start has not kept him off the top ten, especially with someone as hittable as Jordan Zimmmermann on the mound. The two systems agree that Altuve and Blackmon are the top two picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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