Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.308 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.301 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.274 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.272 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chris Archer.
0.270 — Kris Bryant batting against Ivan Nova.

Looks like it will be a rocky start for Clayton Richard! He owns an 8.82 ERA career at Coors Field.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.308, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.724 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.301, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.261, 0.708 — Jose Altuve batting against Lance Lynn.
0.272, 0.694 — Avisail Garcia batting against Chris Archer.
0.284, 0.694 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.262, 0.694 — Jean Segura batting against Jakob Junis.
0.260, 0.691 — Dee Gordon batting against Jakob Junis.
0.286, 0.690 — Ian Desmond batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276, 0.688 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jhoulys Chacin.

The NN missed for the first time this season on Sunday as Jose Altuve failed to get a hit. Eight in a row without a miss is very good. Today, the NN agrees with Log5 on the top two picks, and it looks like a good night to double down with Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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