Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.304 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Fiers.
0.297 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Weaver.
0.296 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Alex Cobb.
0.295 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.295 — Adam C Eaton batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.294 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.293 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sal Romano.
0.292 — Michael Brantley batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.291 — Anthony Rendon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.291 — Juan Soto batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.290 — Matthew Adams batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.289 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.287 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.287 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jakob Junis.
0.285 — Corey Dickerson batting against Cole Hamels.
0.283 — Austin Jackson batting against Tom Milone.
0.282 — Jose Ramirez batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.282 — Wilmer Flores batting against Tom Milone.
0.280 — Dee Gordon batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.280 — Austin Romine batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280 — Trevor Story batting against Luke Weaver.

Andujar owns a .292 BA and a .324 OBP, so a high percentage of his OBP comes from hits. Exactly the kind of player one wants to extend a hit streak. Daniel Murphy rises to the top of the list as he finally appears to be getting his stroke back. He has a high long-term hit average, and now the in-season average is starting to kick in.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.307, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.295, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.325, 0.724 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299, 0.723 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298, 0.723 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Fiers.
0.278, 0.716 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.297, 0.715 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Weaver.
0.292, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.285, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Cole Hamels.
0.287, 0.712 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jakob Junis.
0.280, 0.712 — Dee Gordon batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.294, 0.711 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293, 0.709 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.272, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.279, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.293, 0.707 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sal Romano.
0.282, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.277, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.278, 0.702 — Freddie Freeman batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.295, 0.701 — Adam C Eaton batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.273, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.270, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Nick Kingham.
0.264, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.289, 0.699 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.287, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.

Murphy is the consensus pick, Andujar consensus second pick. Murphy is three for fifteen against Syndergaard.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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