Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Miguel Andujar batting against Martin Perez.
0.341 — J.D. Martinez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.340 — Mookie Betts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.319 — Didi Gregorius batting against Martin Perez.
0.317 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Martin Perez.
0.312 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.308 — Gleyber Torres batting against Martin Perez.
0.305 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Austin Romine batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Steve Pearce batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luke Weaver.
0.297 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.296 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.295 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.294 — Starlin Castro batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.293 — Manny Machado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288 — David Peralta batting against Luis Castillo.
0.288 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287 — Jose Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.287 — Austin Jackson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287 — Luke Voit batting against Martin Perez.
0.286 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.285 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dylan Covey.
0.285 — Brett Gardner batting against Martin Perez.
0.285 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Erasmo Ramirez.

Today’s list is dominated by Yankees and Red Sox players. Andujar strikes me as the quintessential hit streak player. He has a high BA, few walks, doesn’t strike out a lot in today’s environment, and has good power. He’s not a three-true outcomes hitter. As he gains more PA, the three-year regression of his stats will end and he’ll rank higher every day.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.341, 0.753 — J.D. Martinez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.340, 0.747 — Mookie Betts batting against Alex Cobb.
0.351, 0.743 — Miguel Andujar batting against Martin Perez.
0.284, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Cole Hamels.
0.312, 0.723 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.299, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Dylan Covey.
0.296, 0.715 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.298, 0.713 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luke Weaver.
0.287, 0.711 — Jose Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.293, 0.710 — Manny Machado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288, 0.710 — David Peralta batting against Luis Castillo.
0.297, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.319, 0.709 — Didi Gregorius batting against Martin Perez.
0.294, 0.708 — Starlin Castro batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.278, 0.707 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zachary Godley.
0.288, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.280, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.285, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.305, 0.703 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286, 0.703 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.287, 0.702 — Austin Jackson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282, 0.702 — Yadier Molina batting against Jakob Junis.
0.262, 0.699 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd.
0.317, 0.699 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Martin Perez.
0.263, 0.699 — Corey Dickerson batting against Dereck Rodriguez.

J.D. Martinez is the consensus first pick, with Andujar the consensus second pick. Note that Betts currently is working on a seven-game hit streak in which he’s batting .483. Martinez and Betts have very high career BAs against Cobb.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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