Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.330 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.322 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.311 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.310 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.306 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.302 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.300 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.294 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293 — Albert Almora batting against Robert Erlin.
0.292 — Miguel Andujar batting against Brian Johnson.
0.292 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290 — Johan Camargo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.286 — Javier Baez batting against Robert Erlin.
0.286 — Brian Anderson batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.285 — Adam Jones batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.283 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.283 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.282 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — Jesse Biddle batting against Jason Vargas.
0.280 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.280 — Juan Soto batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.280 — Jose Martinez batting against Antonio Senzatela.

Jason Vargas comes into the game against the Braves with an 8.36 ERA. He’s allowed a .330 BA and a .591 slugging percentage. He’s only averaging 4 1/3 innings a start, so the Braves hitters won’t get too many plate appearance against him.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.333, 0.731 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.300, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.311, 0.727 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.330, 0.723 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293, 0.722 — Albert Almora batting against Robert Erlin.
0.322, 0.719 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.286, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.302, 0.717 — Starlin Castro batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.283, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.292, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting against Brian Johnson.
0.286, 0.708 — Javier Baez batting against Robert Erlin.
0.273, 0.705 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.285, 0.705 — Adam Jones batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.282, 0.702 — Adrian Beltre batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.280, 0.702 — Jose Martinez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.280, 0.702 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.273, 0.699 — Nolan Arenado batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.265, 0.698 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.267, 0.697 — Avisail Garcia batting against Brad Keller.
0.278, 0.697 — Yadier Molina batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.300, 0.697 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287, 0.697 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.269, 0.695 — Gerardo Parra batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.310, 0.695 — Charlie Culberson batting against Jason Vargas.

Jean Segura pops to the top, but the Blue Jays have not officially announced a starter for the game. Freeman is the consensus first pick, Markakis the second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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