Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Shane Bieber.
0.309 — Christian Yelich batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.306 — Jean Segura batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.292 — Dee Gordon batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.285 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.285 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284 — Mike Trout batting against Shane Bieber.
0.284 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tanner Roark.
0.280 — Albert Pujols batting against Shane Bieber.
0.280 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.280 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.279 — David Fletcher batting against Shane Bieber.
0.279 — Devon Travis batting against Mike Leake.
0.277 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Shane Bieber.
0.276 — Albert Almora batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.276 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.274 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Walker Buehler.
0.274 — Kevin Pillar batting against Mike Leake.
0.273 — Francisco Arcia batting against Shane Bieber.
0.272 — Javier Baez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.272 — Hernan Perez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.269 — Jose Briceno batting against Shane Bieber.
0.269 — Adam C Eaton batting against Luis Castillo.
0.268 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ervin Santana.
0.268 — Rene Rivera batting against Shane Bieber.
0.268 — Miguel Andujar batting against David Price.

Looks like a good day to pick someone from the Angels. Mike Trout is still day to day, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.735 — Jean Segura batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.309, 0.724 — Christian Yelich batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.285, 0.722 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Castillo.
0.315, 0.721 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Shane Bieber.
0.292, 0.717 — Dee Gordon batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.267, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.282, 0.710 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tanner Roark.
0.280, 0.709 — Eddie Rosario batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.276, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.274, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Walker Buehler.
0.280, 0.704 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.262, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.264, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.263, 0.701 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Wade Miley.
0.272, 0.699 — Javier Baez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.285, 0.698 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.264, 0.697 — Gerardo Parra batting against Wade Miley.
0.264, 0.696 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.267, 0.696 — Matt M Duffy batting against James Shields.
0.263, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Wade Miley.
0.263, 0.694 — Michael Brantley batting against Deck McGuire.
0.268, 0.693 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ervin Santana.
0.268, 0.693 — Miguel Andujar batting against David Price.
0.258, 0.692 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wade Miley.
0.265, 0.692 — Adam Jones batting against Drew Hutchison.

Segura and Yelich tie for the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2OLfTcg