Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.367 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.350 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.312 — Scooter Gennett batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.311 — Nelson Cruz batting against Martin Perez.
0.309 — Ryon Healy batting against Martin Perez.
0.306 — Jose Martinez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.305 — Denard Span batting against Martin Perez.
0.303 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luke Weaver.
0.301 — Mitch Haniger batting against Martin Perez.
0.300 — Yadier Molina batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.298 — Albert Almora batting against Jakob Junis.
0.297 — Miguel Andujar batting against Dylan Covey.
0.297 — Starlin Castro batting against Luke Weaver.
0.296 — Wilmer Flores batting against Homer Bailey.
0.293 — Jose Peraza batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.293 — Javier Baez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.293 — Austin Jackson batting against Homer Bailey.
0.290 — Cameron Maybin batting against Martin Perez.
0.288 — Kyle Seager batting against Martin Perez.
0.288 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.287 — Yairo Munoz batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.285 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.284 — Brian Anderson batting against Luke Weaver.
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.284 — Jesse Winker batting against Noah Syndergaard.

It’s a good day to pick a Mariners hitter. Here is a list of players with at least 12 PA against Perez. A number of Mariners do well against him, but Kyle Seager stands out at 16 for 46, .348, with four home runs.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.367, 0.767 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.350, 0.750 — Dee Gordon batting against Martin Perez.
0.298, 0.726 — Albert Almora batting against Jakob Junis.
0.312, 0.726 — Scooter Gennett batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.306, 0.721 — Jose Martinez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.287, 0.720 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.303, 0.719 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luke Weaver.
0.323, 0.717 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez.
0.293, 0.714 — Javier Baez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287, 0.713 — Nolan Arenado batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.297, 0.712 — Starlin Castro batting against Luke Weaver.
0.300, 0.712 — Yadier Molina batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.297, 0.711 — Miguel Andujar batting against Dylan Covey.
0.281, 0.711 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.284, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.280, 0.709 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.278, 0.702 — Elvis Andrus batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.293, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.309, 0.699 — Ryon Healy batting against Martin Perez.
0.262, 0.699 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.311, 0.699 — Nelson Cruz batting against Martin Perez.
0.269, 0.699 — Starling Marte batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.288, 0.698 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.276, 0.698 — Adrian Beltre batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.280, 0.698 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.268, 0.698 — Whit Merrifield batting against Cole Hamels.

The two systems are in agreement that Segura and Gordon are the top two picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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