Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.315 — Christian Yelich batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.313 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.311 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.306 — David Peralta batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.302 — Avisail Garcia batting against Shane Bieber.
0.302 — Mike Trout batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.298 — Kevan Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298 — Albert Pujols batting against Brett Anderson.
0.297 — Jose Abreu batting against Shane Bieber.
0.297 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296 — Jose Briceno batting against Brett Anderson.
0.293 — Omar Narvaez batting against Shane Bieber.
0.291 — Corey Dickerson batting against Derek Holland.
0.291 — Francisco Arcia batting against Brett Anderson.
0.289 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.288 — David Fletcher batting against Brett Anderson.
0.288 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.287 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.286 — Albert Almora batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.285 — Rene Rivera batting against Brett Anderson.
0.285 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.285 — Anthony Kemp batting against Mike Leake.
0.284 — Justin Upton batting against Brett Anderson.
0.284 — Hernan Perez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.284 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clay Buchholz.

It should be a good day for the Angels and the White Sox.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.340, 0.742 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Anderson.
0.311, 0.731 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.315, 0.727 — Christian Yelich batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.313, 0.725 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.725 — David Peralta batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.289, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.291, 0.719 — Corey Dickerson batting against Derek Holland.
0.286, 0.715 — Albert Almora batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.276, 0.714 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.285, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.284, 0.714 — Scooter Gennett batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.302, 0.711 — Avisail Garcia batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298, 0.711 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283, 0.705 — Javier Baez batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.288, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.280, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Estrada.
0.245, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.268, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.297, 0.701 — Jose Abreu batting against Shane Bieber.
0.282, 0.700 — Matt Kemp batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.278, 0.699 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.262, 0.699 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.273, 0.699 — Jose Martinez batting against Burch Smith.
0.276, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.298, 0.697 — Kevan Smith batting against Shane Bieber.

Simmons is the unanimous first choice. Since the start of the 2016 season, he owns a decently high batting average without too many walks. He also struck out just 127 times in 1430 at bats, so he puts the ball in play. Yelich is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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