Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Michael Brantley batting against Homer Bailey.
0.324 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.324 — Jose Ramirez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.322 — Jose Martinez batting against Tom Milone.
0.319 — Francisco Lindor batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315 — Yadier Molina batting against Tom Milone.
0.310 — Yandy Diaz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tom Milone.
0.301 — Melky Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.300 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298 — Leury Garcia batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.294 — Nick Markakis batting against Merandy Gonzalez.
0.293 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.293 — Freddie Freeman batting against Merandy Gonzalez.
0.291 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.290 — Harrison Bader batting against Tom Milone.
0.290 — Kevan Smith batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.289 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286 — Yonder Alonso batting against Homer Bailey.
0.286 — Avisail Garcia batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.285 — Jose Abreu batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.285 — Rajai Davis batting against Homer Bailey.

Bailey looked like he turned a corner two starts ago when he held the Tigers to three hits in eight innings, but allowed 11 hits in 3 1/3 his last time out against the Mets.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.740 — Michael Brantley batting against Homer Bailey.
0.324, 0.737 — David Peralta batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.322, 0.737 — Jose Martinez batting against Tom Milone.
0.291, 0.732 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.324, 0.730 — Jose Ramirez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.315, 0.727 — Yadier Molina batting against Tom Milone.
0.308, 0.720 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Tom Milone.
0.298, 0.718 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Clayton Richard.
0.319, 0.717 — Francisco Lindor batting against Homer Bailey.
0.275, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Sean Manaea.
0.293, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Merandy Gonzalez.
0.294, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Merandy Gonzalez.
0.315, 0.708 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.299, 0.705 — Jon Jay batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298, 0.704 — Leury Garcia batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.301, 0.704 — Melky Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.274, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.300, 0.703 — A.J. Pollock batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.310, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting against Homer Bailey.
0.274, 0.700 — Nick Markakis batting against Pablo Lopez.
0.286, 0.699 — Avisail Garcia batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.264, 0.698 — Elvis Andrus batting against Zack Greinke.
0.290, 0.695 — Kevan Smith batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.296, 0.695 — Yairo Munoz batting against Tom Milone.
0.285, 0.695 — Jose Abreu batting against Artie Lewicki.

The two systems agree on Brantley and Peralta as the top two picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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