Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Adam Jones batting against Jason Vargas.
0.324 — J.D. Martinez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.320 — Mookie Betts batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.307 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.306 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.304 — Mark Trumbo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.304 — Jonathan Villar batting against Jason Vargas.
0.300 — Matt Kemp batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.297 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.296 — Austin Wynns batting against Jason Vargas.
0.296 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.295 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.294 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.294 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against German Marquez.
0.294 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Jason Vargas.
0.293 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.291 — David Peralta batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.288 — Trey Mancini batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.288 — Steve Wilkerson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.286 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.285 — Renato Nunez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.285 — Craig Gentry batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Yasiel Puig batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.

It’s always a good day when you are facing Jason Vargas. Then again, if the Mets want Vargas to have a good game, facing the Orioles might do it.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.324, 0.745 — J.D. Martinez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.307, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Fiers.
0.320, 0.736 — Mookie Betts batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.336, 0.731 — Adam Jones batting against Jason Vargas.
0.296, 0.719 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.297, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Sal Romano.
0.258, 0.714 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Gant.
0.291, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.295, 0.713 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.294, 0.712 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against German Marquez.
0.306, 0.709 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284, 0.708 — Dee Gordon batting against Michael Fiers.
0.278, 0.708 — Jose Martinez batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.286, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sal Romano.
0.293, 0.707 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.286, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.300, 0.703 — Matt Kemp batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.274, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.271, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Trevor Richards.
0.260, 0.700 — Albert Almora batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.263, 0.699 — Elvis Andrus batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.277, 0.699 — Miguel Andujar batting against Hunter Wood.
0.281, 0.698 — Austin Jackson batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.294, 0.698 — Justin Turner batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.272, 0.697 — Nick Markakis batting against Trevor Richards.

The two systems produce the same top four, but in a different order. J.D. Martinez is the consensus first pick, with Adam Jones the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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