Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
0.320 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brett Anderson.
0.318 — John Hicks batting against Brett Anderson.
0.306 — Jean Segura batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.304 — Christian Yelich batting against German Marquez.
0.301 — David Peralta batting against Chris Stratton.
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Victor Martinez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.296 — James Adduci batting against Brett Anderson.
0.295 — Mike Gerber batting against Brett Anderson.
0.292 — Victor Reyes batting against Brett Anderson.
0.292 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.291 — A.J. Pollock batting against Chris Stratton.
0.290 — Niko Goodrum batting against Brett Anderson.
0.287 — Lorenzo Cain batting against German Marquez.
0.286 — Adam C Eaton batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285 — Jon Jay batting against Chris Stratton.
0.283 — Anthony Rendon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Chris Archer.
0.281 — Ronny Rodriguez batting against Brett Anderson.
0.281 — James McCann batting against Brett Anderson.
0.280 — Trea Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.280 — Miguel Andujar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.280 — Elvis Andrus batting against David Hess.
0.278 — Adrian Beltre batting against David Hess.

Look for the Tigers to have a good night against Anderson.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.306, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.339, 0.734 — Nick Castellanos batting against Brett Anderson.
0.300, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.304, 0.720 — Christian Yelich batting against German Marquez.
0.292, 0.716 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.301, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Chris Stratton.
0.274, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Tyson Ross.
0.320, 0.709 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brett Anderson.
0.266, 0.708 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Severino.
0.275, 0.708 — Scooter Gennett batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.318, 0.705 — John Hicks batting against Brett Anderson.
0.287, 0.705 — Lorenzo Cain batting against German Marquez.
0.274, 0.705 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.283, 0.704 — Jose Martinez batting against Chris Archer.
0.280, 0.704 — Elvis Andrus batting against David Hess.
0.280, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.265, 0.701 — Mookie Betts batting against Luis Severino.
0.265, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.272, 0.700 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Alex Wood.
0.278, 0.700 — Adrian Beltre batting against David Hess.
0.267, 0.697 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Barria.
0.286, 0.697 — Adam C Eaton batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.291, 0.696 — A.J. Pollock batting against Chris Stratton.
0.247, 0.696 — Corey Dickerson batting against John Gant.
0.280, 0.695 — Trea Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.

Castellanos is the consensus first choice, with Segura second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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