Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Vargas.
0.336 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.322 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.320 — Jose Peraza batting against Jason Vargas.
0.315 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.314 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.313 — Mookie Betts batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.312 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Jason Vargas.
0.311 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.305 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chad Bettis.
0.305 — Christian Yelich batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.299 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jacob Turner.
0.299 — Joey Votto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Phillip Ervin batting against Jason Vargas.
0.297 — Robinson Cano batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296 — Mason Williams batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.287 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287 — Michael Perez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.286 — Nelson Cruz batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Montgomery.

I’m surprised Jean Segura still ranks high after going 0 for 6 in an extra inning game Monday night. Even more amazing is that Segura and Shin-soo Choo both failed to reach base in six plate appearances in the same game!

Gennett has not been at the top of the list for a while. Vargas gets knocked around, giving up lots of hits, walks and power.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.754 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.340, 0.739 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Vargas.
0.322, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.315, 0.734 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.328, 0.730 — Matt M Duffy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.305, 0.730 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chad Bettis.
0.313, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.305, 0.727 — Christian Yelich batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.299, 0.715 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jacob Turner.
0.288, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.320, 0.713 — Jose Peraza batting against Jason Vargas.
0.278, 0.713 — Albert Almora batting against Brad Keller.
0.282, 0.712 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.263, 0.712 — Daniel Murphy batting against Max Fried.
0.314, 0.710 — Joey Wendle batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.291, 0.709 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285, 0.707 — Starling Marte batting against Chad Bettis.
0.279, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.311, 0.706 — Mallex Smith batting against Alex Cobb.
0.286, 0.706 — Whit Merrifield batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.279, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.275, 0.704 — Javier Baez batting against Brad Keller.

I suppose Segura is due after Monday night’s performance. Segura is 3 for 17 against Colon, but with no strikeouts. He’s tied with Gennett for consensus first pick.

The Braves and Nationals play a split double header today, so be careful if you are picking a hitter from one of those games.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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