Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.312 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tom Milone.
0.304 — Nick Markakis batting against Tom Milone.
0.303 — Corey Dickerson batting against German Marquez.
0.301 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.298 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.293 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tom Milone.
0.286 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Archer.
0.286 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Hauschild.
0.284 — Starling Marte batting against German Marquez.
0.283 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.283 — Joey Wendle batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.282 — Mallex Smith batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.281 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Archer.
0.281 — Charlie Culberson batting against Tom Milone.
0.280 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Archer.
0.280 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Hauschild.
0.279 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.279 — Matt Kemp batting against Michael Fiers.
0.279 — Christian Yelich batting against 17877.
0.278 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Archer.
0.278 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.277 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Chris Archer.
0.276 — Ender Inciarte batting against Tom Milone.

Andrus owns the longest current hit streak in the majors, 18 games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.303, 0.728 — Corey Dickerson batting against German Marquez.
0.305, 0.728 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tom Milone.
0.304, 0.723 — Nick Markakis batting against Tom Milone.
0.298, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.285, 0.721 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Hauschild.
0.301, 0.716 — Matt M Duffy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.293, 0.712 — Ozzie Albies batting against Tom Milone.
0.274, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.286, 0.710 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.281, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Archer.
0.286, 0.710 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Archer.
0.280, 0.709 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Hauschild.
0.284, 0.707 — Starling Marte batting against German Marquez.
0.278, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Archer.
0.279, 0.704 — Christian Yelich batting against 17877.
0.278, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.280, 0.702 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Archer.
0.271, 0.701 — Javier Baez batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.279, 0.700 — Adrian Beltre batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.247, 0.699 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.267, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.260, 0.698 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.283, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Michael Fiers.
0.269, 0.697 — Michael Brantley batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.263, 0.697 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Clevinger.

Segura is the unanimous first choice, with Freeman the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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