Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — Corey Dickerson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.319 — Buster Posey batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302 — Starling Marte batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.302 — Alen Hanson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.300 — Brandon Crawford batting against Ivan Nova.
0.298 — Evan Longoria batting against Ivan Nova.
0.296 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.294 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.293 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.291 — Adam Frazier batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.291 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.290 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288 — Elias Diaz batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.287 — Austin Slater batting against Ivan Nova.
0.286 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.286 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.285 — David Freese batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.282 — Christian Yelich batting against Robert Erlin.
0.281 — Nick Hundley batting against Ivan Nova.
0.280 — Joey Wendle batting against David Hess.
0.280 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Ivan Nova.
0.279 — Chase D’Arnaud batting against Ivan Nova.
0.278 — Trevor Story batting against Ross Stripling.

The game between the Pirates and the Giants looks like it could generate a lot of hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.324, 0.736 — Corey Dickerson batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.296, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.319, 0.725 — Buster Posey batting against Ivan Nova.
0.291, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ross Stripling.
0.293, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ross Stripling.
0.302, 0.714 — Starling Marte batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.288, 0.711 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.286, 0.710 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.
0.294, 0.710 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.259, 0.709 — Daniel Murphy batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.282, 0.706 — Christian Yelich batting against Robert Erlin.
0.286, 0.706 — Gerardo Parra batting against Ross Stripling.
0.274, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.284, 0.696 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.276, 0.696 — Nick Markakis batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.291, 0.696 — Adam Frazier batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.300, 0.694 — Brandon Crawford batting against Ivan Nova.
0.267, 0.694 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.298, 0.693 — Evan Longoria batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.692 — Alen Hanson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.237, 0.691 — Jean Segura batting against Justin Verlander.
0.263, 0.690 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.265, 0.689 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.280, 0.689 — Joey Wendle batting against David Hess.

The systems agree on Corey Dickerson as the top pick, with Posey the consensus second choice. Dickerson is slowly improving after spending time on the disable list.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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