Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.308 — Matt M Duffy batting against Shane Bieber.
0.305 — Joey Wendle batting against Shane Bieber.
0.305 — Mallex Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.302 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Eflin.
0.301 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.298 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.298 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.297 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.293 — Miguel Andujar batting against Daniel Norris.
0.293 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Pena.
0.291 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.290 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Archer.
0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Robert Erlin.
0.286 — Nick Markakis batting against Chris Archer.
0.285 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robert Erlin.
0.284 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robert Erlin.
0.284 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.284 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Robert Erlin.
0.283 — Charlie Culberson batting against Chris Archer.
0.283 — Gerardo Parra batting against Robert Erlin.
0.280 — Ben Zobrist batting against Zach Eflin.
0.279 — Christian Yelich batting against Stephen Strasburg.

Murphy only faced Eflin twice, and is 0 for 2 against him. Reading through the list, I hope to see an Eflin versus Erlin game sometime. Jean Segura did not play again Friday night.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.318, 0.750 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292, 0.739 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Pena.
0.298, 0.735 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.298, 0.725 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.293, 0.725 — Miguel Andujar batting against Daniel Norris.
0.302, 0.724 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Eflin.
0.301, 0.719 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291, 0.719 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.308, 0.717 — Matt M Duffy batting against Shane Bieber.
0.297, 0.716 — Corey Dickerson batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.293, 0.716 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305, 0.714 — Joey Wendle batting against Shane Bieber.
0.290, 0.713 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.305, 0.710 — Mallex Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.285, 0.708 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robert Erlin.
0.289, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Archer.
0.284, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robert Erlin.
0.262, 0.705 — Scooter Gennett batting against Daniel Poncedeleon.
0.287, 0.704 — Nolan Arenado batting against Robert Erlin.
0.275, 0.703 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Daniel Norris.
0.279, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.284, 0.702 — Starling Marte batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.283, 0.699 — Gerardo Parra batting against Robert Erlin.
0.271, 0.698 — Dee Gordon batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.286, 0.697 — Nick Markakis batting against Chris Archer.

While the systems agree on Murphy, they disagree on the the players trailing. Matt Duffy is the consensus second choice, but Altuve is usually a very good choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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