Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jean Segura batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.320 — Adam Jones batting against Brett Anderson.
0.317 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.317 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.313 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.311 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.311 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Ross.
0.304 — Dee Gordon batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.299 — Whit Merrifield batting against Stephen Gonsalves.
0.295 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Ross.
0.294 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Ross.
0.293 — Robinson Cano batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.290 — Jonathan Villar batting against Brett Anderson.
0.290 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.290 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.
0.289 — Brian Anderson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288 — Derek Dietrich batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.286 — Mike Trout batting against Mike Leake.
0.285 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.285 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.283 — Jose M Fernandez batting against Mike Leake.
0.282 — Mitch Haniger batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.282 — Mark Trumbo batting against Brett Anderson.
0.282 — Ryon Healy batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.

It looks like it might be a good day for the Mariners. The Marlins and Mets try once again to play a double header, so be careful picking against Vargas.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.749 — Jean Segura batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.306, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Ross.
0.317, 0.739 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.320, 0.730 — Adam Jones batting against Brett Anderson.
0.311, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.313, 0.722 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.294, 0.720 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Ross.
0.317, 0.720 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.295, 0.718 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Ross.
0.304, 0.715 — Dee Gordon batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.299, 0.714 — Whit Merrifield batting against Stephen Gonsalves.
0.311, 0.712 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.290, 0.709 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.267, 0.700 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.277, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against Steven Matz.
0.257, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.293, 0.697 — Robinson Cano batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.257, 0.696 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clay Buchholz.
0.257, 0.695 — Jose Martinez batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.285, 0.695 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.274, 0.694 — Brandon Phillips batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.294, 0.692 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
0.272, 0.691 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.290, 0.688 — Jonathan Villar batting against Brett Anderson.
0.279, 0.688 — Ben Zobrist batting against Joe Ross.
0.253, 0.688 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clay Buchholz.

Segura is the first choice, with Adam Jones and J.D. Martinez the consensus second choices.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Qu79bx