Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.323 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.320 — J.D. Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.315 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Mookie Betts batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.311 — James Adduci batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.310 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.308 — Jeff McNeil batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.302 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.302 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.301 — Wilson Ramos batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.297 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.297 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.296 — Ben Zobrist batting against Matt Harvey.
0.293 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marco Estrada.
0.292 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.292 — David Dahl batting against Chris Stratton.
0.291 — Victor Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.291 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.291 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Archer.
0.290 — Trevor Story batting against Chris Stratton.
0.289 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Archer.
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.288 — Elvis Andrus batting against Robert Erlin.
0.288 — Victor Reyes batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.288 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Noah Syndergaard.

It might be a good day for the Tigers offense, and the Red Sox look to do pretty well against Syndergaard.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.323, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.320, 0.742 — J.D. Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.332, 0.732 — Nick Castellanos batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.313, 0.729 — Mookie Betts batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.301, 0.728 — Wilson Ramos batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.289, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.315, 0.726 — Javier Baez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.724 — Albert Almora batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.723 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.302, 0.722 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.293, 0.721 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marco Estrada.
0.262, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Robbie Ray.
0.277, 0.714 — Scooter Gennett batting against Cole Hamels.
0.297, 0.712 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.297, 0.712 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.308, 0.710 — Jeff McNeil batting against Hector Velazquez.
0.292, 0.710 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.289, 0.709 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Archer.
0.291, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Archer.
0.292, 0.705 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.291, 0.703 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.292, 0.702 — David Dahl batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288, 0.699 — Elvis Andrus batting against Robert Erlin.
0.258, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Boyd.
0.278, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against Dallas Keuchel.

The NN does not agree that the Tigers will do well against Tomlin. Murphy is 5 for 13 career against Harvey. Murphy is the consensus first choice, Castellanos the second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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