Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.320 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.319 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.312 — Franmil Reyes batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.311 — J.D. Martinez batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.306 — Eric Hosmer batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.303 — Mookie Betts batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.302 — Jose Pirela batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.302 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jon Lester.
0.301 — Wilson Ramos batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.300 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zach Davies.
0.298 — Daniel Murphy batting against Cody Reed.
0.297 — Adrian Beltre batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Manuel Margot batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.297 — Hunter Renfroe batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.296 — Elvis Andrus batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Wil Myers batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.294 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Zachary Godley.
0.293 — Travis Jankowski batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.293 — Javier Baez batting against Cody Reed.
0.292 — Hernan Perez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292 — A.J. Ellis batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.289 — Albert Almora batting against Cody Reed.
0.288 — Javier Guerra batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.288 — Francisco Mejia batting against Alexander Claudio.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many Padres on this list. Claudio is being used as an opener, but he allowed a 0.337/.370/.472 slash line this season. Yelich and Cain at the top of the list is just another indication of great off-season moves by the Brewers paying off.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.735 — J.D. Martinez batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.294, 0.733 — Jose Altuve batting against Zachary Godley.
0.319, 0.730 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Ivan Nova.
0.298, 0.729 — Daniel Murphy batting against Cody Reed.
0.302, 0.728 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jon Lester.
0.320, 0.728 — Christian Yelich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.301, 0.726 — Wilson Ramos batting against Elieser Hernandez.
0.287, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.303, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.284, 0.716 — Miguel Andujar batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.300, 0.715 — Corey Dickerson batting against Zach Davies.
0.293, 0.711 — Javier Baez batting against Cody Reed.
0.289, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Cody Reed.
0.294, 0.708 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.276, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.296, 0.703 — Elvis Andrus batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297, 0.702 — Adrian Beltre batting against Eric Lauer.
0.280, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.283, 0.702 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Corey Oswalt.
0.282, 0.701 — Jose Peraza batting against Jon Lester.
0.285, 0.699 — Starling Marte batting against Zach Davies.
0.306, 0.697 — Eric Hosmer batting against Alexander Claudio.
0.278, 0.697 — Jeff McNeil batting against Rick Porcello.
0.260, 0.696 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.285, 0.695 — Adam Frazier batting against Zach Davies.

J.D. Martinez and Cain are tied for consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2pb7nI4