Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Starlin Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
0.313 — Scooter Gennett batting against Robert Erlin.
0.310 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Stratton.
0.309 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.303 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Stratton.
0.294 — Jean Segura batting against Lance Lynn.
0.292 — Jose Peraza batting against Robert Erlin.
0.289 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.
0.286 — Brian Anderson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284 — Derek Dietrich batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283 — Miguel Andujar batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.283 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.283 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Harvey.
0.283 — Rafael Ortega batting against Ivan Nova.
0.282 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.281 — Hernan Perez batting against Chris Stratton.
0.280 — Roman T Quinn batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.278 — Wilmer Flores batting against Zach Eflin.
0.277 — Franmil Reyes batting against Matt Harvey.
0.277 — Manuel Margot batting against Matt Harvey.
0.277 — Joey Wendle batting against David Hess.
0.277 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

Looks like it might be a good offensive day for the Marlins. Nice to see Franmil Reyes make the list. The Padres rookie his seven doubles and 15 home runs in his first 190 at bats.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.734 — Scooter Gennett batting against Robert Erlin.
0.294, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Lance Lynn.
0.283, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.277, 0.728 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.306, 0.726 — Wilson Ramos batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.315, 0.726 — Starlin Castro batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.722 — Christian Yelich batting against Chris Stratton.
0.303, 0.717 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chris Stratton.
0.309, 0.717 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.283, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.292, 0.706 — Jose Peraza batting against Robert Erlin.
0.276, 0.705 — Michael Brantley batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.262, 0.705 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.282, 0.704 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.270, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jorge Lopez.
0.246, 0.702 — J.D. Martinez batting against Charlie Morton.
0.267, 0.699 — Javier Baez batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.265, 0.699 — Albert Almora batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.277, 0.697 — Joey Wendle batting against David Hess.
0.269, 0.695 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.225, 0.695 — Daniel Murphy batting against Max Scherzer.
0.273, 0.694 — Starling Marte batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.275, 0.692 — Matt M Duffy batting against David Hess.
0.282, 0.692 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.260, 0.691 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.269, 0.691 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.289, 0.691 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.

It’s another Scooter Gennett day. Castro is the consensus second pick. Be careful picking Cubs and Nationals players today, as the teams are playing a double header after wasting starting pitchers last night.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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