Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Wilson Ramos batting against Erick Fedde.
0.299 — Roman T Quinn batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wade Miley.
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.291 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.290 — Corey Dickerson batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.285 — Christian Yelich batting against Jon Lester.
0.285 — Justin Turner batting against Cody Reed.
0.284 — Jorge Alfaro batting against Erick Fedde.
0.282 — Maikel Franco batting against Erick Fedde.
0.281 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.280 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.279 — Nick Williams batting against Erick Fedde.
0.278 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277 — Javier Baez batting against Wade Miley.
0.277 — Manny Machado batting against Cody Reed.
0.277 — Adam Frazier batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.276 — Scooter Gennett batting against Alex Wood.
0.276 — Albert Almora batting against Wade Miley.
0.276 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jon Lester.
0.272 — Matt Kemp batting against Cody Reed.
0.271 — Elias Diaz batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.271 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jeff Brigham.
0.270 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.270 — Pedro Florimon Jr. batting against Erick Fedde.

The Phillies get the chance to hit against Fedde today after the Cubs and Nationals were rained out on Sunday. Form Washington catcher Ramos gets the nod against his old team from the Log5 method.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.739 — Wilson Ramos batting against Erick Fedde.
0.293, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wade Miley.
0.291, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.278, 0.718 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.290, 0.712 — Corey Dickerson batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.276, 0.712 — Scooter Gennett batting against Alex Wood.
0.280, 0.710 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.
0.276, 0.707 — Albert Almora batting against Wade Miley.
0.285, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting against Jon Lester.
0.277, 0.706 — Javier Baez batting against Wade Miley.
0.285, 0.705 — Justin Turner batting against Cody Reed.
0.265, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Trevor Williams.
0.267, 0.703 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
0.281, 0.703 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.276, 0.699 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jon Lester.
0.264, 0.698 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zachary Godley.
0.299, 0.697 — Roman T Quinn batting against Erick Fedde.
0.261, 0.695 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277, 0.694 — Adam Frazier batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.277, 0.693 — Manny Machado batting against Cody Reed.
0.264, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.291, 0.692 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.288, 0.690 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.261, 0.690 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zachary Godley.
0.252, 0.689 — Eddie Rosario batting against J.A. Happ.

It’s former Nats double down day as Ramos and Murphy are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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