Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.326 — Wilson Ramos batting against Erick Fedde.
0.323 — Jean Segura batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.316 — Matt M Duffy batting against Shane Bieber.
0.315 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.314 — Joey Wendle batting against Shane Bieber.
0.313 — Miguel Andujar batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.313 — Mallex Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.299 — Roman T Quinn batting against Erick Fedde.
0.299 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.298 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.298 — Freddie Freeman batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.297 — Dee Gordon batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.296 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.295 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.294 — Nick Markakis batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.293 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.291 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.290 — Tyler White batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.290 — Adam C Eaton batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tanner Roark.
0.289 — Anthony Rendon batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.288 — Robinson Cano batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.288 — Scooter Gennett batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.

You could double down on Wilson Ramos today, but he’s unlikely to play both games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.327, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.323, 0.746 — Jean Segura batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.315, 0.739 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.326, 0.739 — Wilson Ramos batting against Erick Fedde.
0.313, 0.738 — Miguel Andujar batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.308, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.296, 0.723 — Jose Martinez batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.316, 0.720 — Matt M Duffy batting against Shane Bieber.
0.272, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.299, 0.720 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
0.314, 0.718 — Joey Wendle batting against Shane Bieber.
0.290, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Tanner Roark.
0.296, 0.718 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.298, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.295, 0.716 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.298, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.313, 0.713 — Mallex Smith batting against Shane Bieber.
0.297, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.293, 0.710 — Corey Dickerson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.294, 0.705 — Nick Markakis batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.286, 0.705 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.279, 0.704 — Eddie Rosario batting against Sonny Gray.
0.263, 0.703 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.279, 0.703 — Adam Jones batting against Michael Fiers.
0.290, 0.703 — Adam C Eaton batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.282, 0.703 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Joe Musgrove.

Altuve is the unanimous first pick, with Segura the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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