Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.310 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.307 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.306 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.296 — Starlin Castro batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.292 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Erick Fedde.
0.291 — Justin Turner batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.291 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.289 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.288 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.288 — Nick Markakis batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.288 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.286 — Whit Merrifield batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.284 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.284 — Joe Mauer batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.282 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.282 — Hernan Perez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281 — Wilson Ramos batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.280 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.279 — Matt Kemp batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.278 — Ronald Acuna batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.278 — Ozzie Albies batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277 — Willians Astudillo batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.277 — Charlie Culberson batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.277 — Franmil Reyes batting against Andrew Suarez.

Mikolas is a good pitcher, but most of the OBP against him comes from hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.294, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.307, 0.725 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291, 0.724 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.721 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.306, 0.721 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.281, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.272, 0.715 — Daniel Murphy batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.282, 0.710 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.286, 0.710 — Whit Merrifield batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.260, 0.709 — Jean Segura batting against Framber Valdez.
0.291, 0.709 — Justin Turner batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.296, 0.707 — Starlin Castro batting against Erick Fedde.
0.288, 0.707 — Adam Jones batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.284, 0.706 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.280, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.288, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.288, 0.701 — Nick Markakis batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.274, 0.700 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.292, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Erick Fedde.
0.273, 0.698 — Corey Dickerson batting against Brad Keller.
0.266, 0.698 — Javier Baez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.275, 0.695 — Nolan Arenado batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.274, 0.694 — Gerardo Parra batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.289, 0.694 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.269, 0.693 — Matt M Duffy batting against Adrian Sampson.

Yelich and Rosario are the consensus 1-2 pick, but it’s always easy to go with Altuve.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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