Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.305 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298 — Jose Peraza batting against Luke Weaver.
0.293 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.292 — Buster Posey batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.289 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jon Lester.
0.288 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yohander Mendez.
0.285 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.284 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.283 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.282 — Wilmer Flores batting against Chris Stratton.
0.280 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Luke Weaver.
0.280 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.277 — Mason Williams batting against Luke Weaver.
0.276 — Mookie Betts batting against James Shields.
0.276 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.276 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.276 — Yadier Molina batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.275 — Starlin Castro batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.274 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.274 — Whit Merrifield batting against David Hess.
0.274 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Jacob Nix.
0.273 — Adam C Eaton batting against Junior Guerra.
0.272 — Austin Slater batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.272 — Curtis Casali batting against Luke Weaver.

Barring a tie-breaker game or games, today is the last day one can start a streak and have enough days left to win the prize. You would need to double down every day except one.

Gennett is exactly the kind of hitter who should extend a streak. He owns a high batting average (.318), doesn’t walk much (.366 OBP), and strikes out moderately in today’s environment (108 K in 500 AB). Gennett is also 5 for 11 with three K and no walks against Weaver.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.738 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.283, 0.732 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.305, 0.730 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285, 0.725 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.258, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Shohei Ohtani.
0.289, 0.718 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jon Lester.
0.260, 0.717 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.288, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Yohander Mendez.
0.298, 0.710 — Jose Peraza batting against Luke Weaver.
0.276, 0.708 — Mookie Betts batting against James Shields.
0.274, 0.706 — Whit Merrifield batting against David Hess.
0.264, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting against Matt Boyd.
0.293, 0.703 — Austin Jackson batting against Chris Stratton.
0.280, 0.701 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jacob Nix.
0.269, 0.700 — Christian Yelich batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.284, 0.700 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.276, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jacob Nix.
0.276, 0.699 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jacob Nix.
0.275, 0.698 — Starlin Castro batting against Sean Reid-Foley.
0.268, 0.696 — Adam Jones batting against Jorge Lopez.
0.274, 0.693 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jacob Nix.
0.260, 0.692 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jefry Rodriguez.
0.265, 0.691 — Matt M Duffy batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.255, 0.691 — Dee Gordon batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.261, 0.691 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nick Kingham.

Gennett is the unanimous first choice, with Jose Martinez the consensus second choice. You can double down on one game! Note that Jean Segura played last night and collected three hits. Segura is 4 for 17 against Jackson with three K.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2oymZFg