Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.315 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
0.314 — David Peralta batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.305 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Davies.
0.302 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Rogers.
0.299 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Davies.
0.298 — Adam Jones batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.296 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.295 — Elias Diaz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.294 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.294 — Jon Jay batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.292 — Colin Moran batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Adam Frazier batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.290 — Joey Wendle batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.287 — Nick Markakis batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.287 — Mallex Smith batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.283 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.283 — Ronald Acuna batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.282 — Charlie Culberson batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.282 — Ozzie Albies batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.282 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Harvey.

Dickerson is 3 for 9 against Harvey in their careers, but with just one strikeout and no walks. Dickerson puts the ball in play against Matt, a prerequisite for getting a hit. He’s also hit Harvey for power, with a double and a home run. Harrison is 6 for 14 against Harvey, one of the better hitters against Matt. He also struck out just once against Harvey

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zach Davies.
0.293, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.302, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Rogers.
0.316, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.314, 0.725 — David Peralta batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.280, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against Touki Toussaint.
0.302, 0.723 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Davies.
0.296, 0.722 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jose Urena.
0.299, 0.721 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Davies.
0.305, 0.716 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288, 0.715 — Michael Brantley batting against Jakob Junis.
0.273, 0.713 — Scooter Gennett batting against Trevor Williams.
0.298, 0.711 — Adam Jones batting against Erasmo Ramirez.
0.290, 0.708 — Freddie Freeman batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.291, 0.708 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.290, 0.707 — Joey Wendle batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.273, 0.705 — Whit Merrifield batting against Adam Plutko.
0.270, 0.705 — Mookie Betts batting against Touki Toussaint.
0.261, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.279, 0.704 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.287, 0.700 — Mallex Smith batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.294, 0.699 — Jon Jay batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.287, 0.698 — Nick Markakis batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.294, 0.697 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.271, 0.697 — Dee Gordon batting against Josh Rogers.

Murphy is 2 for 11 career against Davies with two strikeouts and one walk. Again, Murphy puts the ball in play against this pitcher, but so far his results have been poor. Murphy is the consensus first pick, Dickerson the consensus second pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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