Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Jean Segura batting against Alex Cobb.
0.326 — Jose Martinez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.316 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.310 — Manny Machado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.307 — Joey Wendle batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.306 — Matt Kemp batting against Jason Vargas.
0.305 — Matt M Duffy batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.305 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.302 — Dee Gordon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.301 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Erick Fedde.
0.300 — Miguel Andujar batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.298 — Mallex Smith batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.297 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wade Miley.
0.296 — Yadier Molina batting against Erick Fedde.
0.295 — David Freese batting against Jason Vargas.
0.294 — Yairo Munoz batting against Erick Fedde.
0.294 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Alex Cobb.
0.292 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.288 — Robinson Cano batting against Alex Cobb.
0.287 — Javier Baez batting against Wade Miley.
0.286 — Harrison Bader batting against Erick Fedde.
0.285 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.283 — Ryon Healy batting against Alex Cobb.
0.282 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.282 — Mitch Haniger batting against Alex Cobb.
0.282 — Albert Almora batting against Wade Miley.
0.282 — Yasiel Puig batting against Jason Vargas.

This season at least, it’s always nice to face an Orioles starter. Note that Dodgers batters rank high against Vargas, but he has been pitching better lately.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.335, 0.755 — Jean Segura batting against Alex Cobb.
0.326, 0.741 — Jose Martinez batting against Erick Fedde.
0.297, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wade Miley.
0.305, 0.732 — Scooter Gennett batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.276, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor May.
0.300, 0.724 — Miguel Andujar batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.276, 0.721 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.307, 0.720 — Joey Wendle batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.316, 0.719 — Justin Turner batting against Jason Vargas.
0.302, 0.717 — Dee Gordon batting against Alex Cobb.
0.305, 0.716 — Matt M Duffy batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.287, 0.713 — Javier Baez batting against Wade Miley.
0.280, 0.712 — Wilson Ramos batting against Trevor Richards.
0.282, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.710 — Manny Machado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.301, 0.709 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Erick Fedde.
0.279, 0.708 — Michael Brantley batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.292, 0.708 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.306, 0.706 — Matt Kemp batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298, 0.704 — Mallex Smith batting against Ryan Borucki.
0.285, 0.703 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.282, 0.703 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.266, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.296, 0.702 — Yadier Molina batting against Erick Fedde.
0.273, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against Joey Lucchesi.

It looks like Segura and Jose Martinez is the unanimous double down for the day.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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