Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Scooter Gennett batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.315 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Ross.
0.302 — Jose Peraza batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.298 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Ross.
0.296 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Ross.
0.294 — David Peralta batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.293 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.292 — Whit Merrifield batting against Stephen Gonsalves.
0.290 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.287 — Joey Wendle batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.287 — Justin Turner batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — Matt M Duffy batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.285 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Estrada.
0.284 — Christian Yelich batting against Derek Holland.
0.283 — Mason Williams batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.283 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.282 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Archer.
0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.280 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.279 — Mallex Smith batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.278 — Ben Zobrist batting against Joe Ross.
0.277 — Matt Kemp batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.276 — Curtis Casali batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.276 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Derek Holland.
0.276 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kevin Gausman.

Gennett works his way to the top of the chart once more.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joe Ross.
0.326, 0.741 — Scooter Gennett batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.282, 0.732 — Jose Altuve batting against David Price.
0.290, 0.730 — Jean Segura batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.298, 0.723 — Javier Baez batting against Joe Ross.
0.296, 0.723 — Albert Almora batting against Joe Ross.
0.283, 0.722 — Jose Martinez batting against Daniel Norris.
0.293, 0.720 — Wilson Ramos batting against Steven Matz.
0.294, 0.714 — David Peralta batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.292, 0.712 — Whit Merrifield batting against Stephen Gonsalves.
0.254, 0.712 — J.D. Martinez batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.285, 0.709 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Estrada.
0.302, 0.709 — Jose Peraza batting against Brett Kennedy.
0.287, 0.709 — Justin Turner batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284, 0.708 — Christian Yelich batting against Derek Holland.
0.271, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Heath Fillmyer.
0.276, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Derek Holland.
0.282, 0.702 — Starlin Castro batting against Chris Archer.
0.283, 0.701 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.258, 0.700 — Miguel Andujar batting against James Paxton.
0.277, 0.695 — Matt Kemp batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chris Archer.
0.264, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Daniel Norris.
0.273, 0.691 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jon Lester.
0.262, 0.691 — Dee Gordon batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

Murphy and Gennett are a consensus 1-2. Joe Ross has not pitched in the majors in over a year, so it’s tough to gauge how he will do tonight.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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