All three massive tie scenarios improved Friday night as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 3-0 behind an outstanding pitching performance by Walker Buehler and two home runs by Yasiel Puig. The Diamondbacks beat the Astros 4-2 with a double, triple, and single in the eighth inning. The Rockies ended the Giants losing streak as they fell 2-0 as Chris Stratton pitched a two-hit shutout.
I made a mistake in yesterday’s NL West probability calculation, it should have been 0.0047, twice what I posted. The gist would have been the same however. A three-way tie in the NL West now has the probability of 0.0093, with the most likely win total for a tie at 88 wins. A three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card has a probability of 0.0112, also with 88 wins as the most likely total. The tie between the Rockies, Dodgers, and Cardinals is a bit of a reality this morning, as all three teams at 81 wins, the Rockies with a game in hand. The probability of that tie is 0.0247.
For today, the best result would be an Arizona win. The other two games can go either way. For the NL West tie, the Dodgers and Rockies losing would be best.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2Nbt6xX
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