J.D. Martinez pretty much wrapped up the RBI crown Sunday night as he drove in four runs to lead Khris Davis 121-108. The RBI simulator gives Martinez a .987 probability of winning the RBI title. Martinez also homered to narrow Davis’s lead in home runs to 41-40. The calculation used based on their career HR rates gives Martinez a 0.336 probability of winning the home run title. The simulator that uses 2018 data only to calculate winning both titles gives Martinez a probability of .426 of accomplishing 2/3 of the triple crown.
As for batting average, Mookie Betts now leads in the batting title race 0.342 to 0.331. Martinez owns a 0.14 probability of winning the batting title, based on both of them being .335 hitters for the 2018 season.
So the more conservative calculation puts Martinez’s probability of winning the triple crown at 0.046. The one that combines home runs and RBI put the probability at 0.060. It’s a long shot at this point.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2CCv59s
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