J.D. Martinez went 1 for 4 Tuesday night, gaining a little ground on Mookie Betts in the batting average race, as Betts went 0 for 3. The probability of Martinez winning the batting title is now about 0.166. Neither Martinez nor Khris Davis homered, and Davis drove in one run. The probability of Martinez at least tying for the HR title is now .337, while his probability of at least tying for the RBI title stands at .986. Based on simulation, Martinez’s probability of at least tying for the HR and RBI titles is .421. Based on the more independent method, Martinez’s probability of a triple crown stands at 0.055. Using the more conditional method, it stands at 0.070. That enough to make it interesting for the Red Sox down the stretch.
Many years ago Bill James wrote about how difficult it had become to win the triple crown, nothing that players no longer even won the triple crown for their team. That’s exactly what is happening in Boston this season.
from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2x4OOJQ
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