Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.315 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ross Stripling.
0.311 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.301 — Justin Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.300 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.298 — Manny Machado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.292 — Matt Kemp batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Norris.
0.292 — Jose Peraza batting against Ross Stripling.
0.291 — David Peralta batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.289 — Martin Prado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.288 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287 — Brian Anderson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.287 — Kevan Smith batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.287 — Derek Dietrich batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — David Freese batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.285 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.284 — Miguel Rojas batting against Jason Vargas.
0.284 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.281 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.280 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The Mets and Marlins play a double header today, so be careful choosing your games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.292, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Norris.
0.312, 0.736 — Scooter Gennett batting against Ross Stripling.
0.289, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.300, 0.726 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.288, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.315, 0.719 — Starlin Castro batting against Jason Vargas.
0.273, 0.719 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chase Anderson.
0.285, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.291, 0.715 — David Peralta batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.301, 0.714 — Justin Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.311, 0.713 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.269, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.292, 0.709 — Jose Peraza batting against Ross Stripling.
0.298, 0.707 — Manny Machado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285, 0.704 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.284, 0.704 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.280, 0.704 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.279, 0.703 — Adam Jones batting against Liam Hendriks.
0.288, 0.703 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.258, 0.702 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.292, 0.700 — Matt Kemp batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.287, 0.700 — Kevan Smith batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.265, 0.697 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Norris.
0.281, 0.697 — Jose Abreu batting against Eric Skoglund.

Gennett is the consensus first pick, finishing second in each run. It also might be a good day for a two Martinez double down. Castro is the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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