Saturday, June 30, 2018

Grand Slam Day

Fox reported that Rafael Devers‘s grand slam was interesting in two ways. He is the youngest players to hit a grand slam in the Red Sox and Yankees rivalry. It is also the first first-inning grand slam in the rivalry since 1951.

That last fact is both true and false. It’s the last first-inning slam that counted.

6/20/1969: Yankee Joe Pepitone hit a grand slam off Mike Nagy at Fenway Park. It came in the first inning with no one out in a game called because of rain one batter later.

That was the first year I watched baseball, and saw that game on TV. Pepitone came out during the rain and tried to do a dance to make it stop. The rain kept falling and the game was postponed.

The Reds got a second grand slam from someone who is a pitcher:

Relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen continues to prove to be an invaluable weapon as a hitter off the bench for the Reds.

In the seventh inning of Saturday’s 12-3 win against the Brewers, Reds interim manager Jim Riggleman brought in Lorenzen to pinch-hit for pitcher David Hernandez with the bases loaded. Lorenzen crushed a 1-0 fastball over the left-field wall to give Cincinnati a 10-3 lead for his second home run in as many days and his third since last Sunday (in three straight at-bats).

Lorenzen is the second Reds pitcher in a week to hit a grand slam. Anthony DeSclafani hit one on June 23 in an 11-2 win against the Cubs.

Note, that it will not go down in the record books as a pitcher hitting a home run, since Lorenzen was a pinch hitter at the time. He is four for six this season with three home runs.



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Angels in the Hospital

Another Angels pitcher undergoes Tommy John surgery:

Los Angeles Angels lefthander John Lamb will have Tommy John surgery, the team announced Saturday.

Lamb becomes the fourth pitcher on the squad this season to have the season-ending surgery for a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the surgery in Los Angeles.

Two other players, Jake Jewell and Zack Cozart also underwent season ending surgery.

If you are a baseball team, do you look at what the Angels and Mets do with their players and then do the opposite? I understand that injuries are tough to predict, but during the last few seasons these teams appear to have an inordinate number of players on the disabled list.



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Darvish Setback

Yu Darvish isn’t quite ready to pitch yet:

Yu Darvish was diagnosed with a right elbow impingement and inflammation by Rangers orthopedist Keith Meister in Dallas on Friday, and he received a cortisone shot, according to the Cubs.

Darvish will have to wait three to five days before he can resume throwing.

My first experience with Sig Mejdal of the Astros was when he sent me a paper on injury frequency. The most likely time for a player to get injured is when he is returning from a previous injury. Darvish is another data point on that graph.



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Smith Under the Knife

Caleb Smith elected shoulder surgery so that he would be ready for next season:

Smith, the Miami Marlins’ most consistent starter so far and one of the top-performing rookie pitchers in baseball, elected to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery after he suffered a grade 3 lat strain last week in Colorado.

“Once we found out the MRI [results], we knew he’d miss the season,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said. “He looked at his options and he felt this was best for him.”

The Marlins pitching prospects are coming to the majors quickly. The Marlins allowed 4.99 runs per game this season, third highest in the NL. With the Marlins scoring 3.66 runs per game, they are actually winning a few more games than expected.

Note that the Marlins scored 4.8 runs per game last season. If they had kept the offense together with this pitching staff, they probably would be a .500 team. They might have gotten lucky and won, or more likely they would have been on the edge of the pennant race. Miami can now afford to bring up youngsters and see how they play, and let them develop into a mature, successful team. Fans don’t like it, and I understand, but I suspect the Astros and Cubs fans are happy their teams went in that direction.



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The Return

I’m back from vacation. Regular blogging will resume soon. 🙂



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.348 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Hammel.
0.314 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.314 — Dee Gordon batting against Jason Hammel.
0.311 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.306 — Albert Almora batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.301 — Nick Markakis batting against Luke Weaver.
0.301 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.300 — Kevan Smith batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298 — Leury Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298 — Jose Abreu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.297 — Avisail Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.291 — Brandon Crawford batting against Shelby Miller.
0.290 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.287 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.286 — Gerardo Parra batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.286 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.283 — Jose Ramirez batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.283 — Nelson Cruz batting against Jason Hammel.
0.282 — Mookie Betts batting against Sonny Gray.
0.282 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.282 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luke Weaver.
0.282 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Luke Weaver.
0.280 — Mike Trout batting against Andrew Cashner.

Segura is just 4 for 23 against Hammel, but with just four strikeouts. Segura put the ball in play, but didn’t find many holes.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.348, 0.766 — Jean Segura batting against Jason Hammel.
0.306, 0.739 — Albert Almora batting against Adalberto Mejia.
0.260, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.314, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against Jason Hammel.
0.301, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.311, 0.723 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.314, 0.722 — Matt Kemp batting against German Marquez.
0.290, 0.721 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.297, 0.716 — Avisail Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286, 0.714 — Gerardo Parra batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.287, 0.714 — J.D. Martinez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.299, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting against Luke Weaver.
0.298, 0.710 — Jose Abreu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.710 — Nick Markakis batting against Luke Weaver.
0.300, 0.709 — Kevan Smith batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.291, 0.704 — Brandon Crawford batting against Shelby Miller.
0.298, 0.703 — Leury Garcia batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.279, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sam J Gaviglio.
0.278, 0.702 — Adam Jones batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.282, 0.701 — Buster Posey batting against Shelby Miller.
0.282, 0.701 — Mookie Betts batting against Sonny Gray.
0.296, 0.699 — Benjamin Gamel batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275, 0.698 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kenta Maeda.
0.253, 0.698 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Segura is the unanimous first choice, with Dee Gordon the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

Alex Bregman breaks through to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His home run Friday night provided the only two runs as the Rays beat the Astros 3-2. A rare 0 for 4 by Jose Altuve drops him to fourth. Mike Trout returned to the outfield Friday night and hit a home run and drew a walk to move into second place, just 0.64 points behind Bregman. Matt Carpenter ranks third, and a 1 for 3 night by Jose Ramirez brings him back into the top five.

I’m not sure that the general baseball audience thinks of Bregman as one of the best hitters in the game. He’s hitting .308/.376/.702 in June, with 20 of his 32 hits going for extra bases. His rise to the top is fueled by a recent extremely hot streak, 11 for his last 21 with two walks and nine extra base hits. It’s his seasonal age 24 season, so he still has time to improve.



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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Friday, June 29, 2018

Games of the Day

A late afternoon start at Wrigley Field sees Jose Berrios of the Twins facing Mike Montgomery of the Cubs. Berrios’s weakness is home runs, and that is especially true on the road where he allowed eight homers in 37 2/3 innings. Montgomery owns a 2.02 ERA in six starts, but a 5.33 ERA in 18 relief appearances.

The Red Sox send Eduardo Rodriguez against the Yankees and CC Sabathia. The Red Sox lead the Yankees by one game in the AL East, but New York played four fewer games. Rodriguez can match his rookie total of 10 wins with a W tonight. Rodriguez pitches well against the Yankees, 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA in ten career starts. Sabathia is hot, with a 2.10 ERA in June, but just a 2-2 record to go with that. He’s walked six and struck out 23 in his 25 2/3 innings this month.

Enjoy!



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The Pearce Trade

The Red Sox traded for Steve Pearce Thursday night.

The Boston Red Sox acquired veteran first baseman/outfielder Steve Pearce in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday night.

Dave Dombrowski, the Red Sox president of baseball operations, announced the deal after Boston’s 4-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels.

Dombrowski said the Red Sox are getting Pearce and cash considerations from Toronto in exchange for minor league infielder Santiago Espinal.

Ken Rosenthal expands on the money:

The Red Sox have hit lefties much worse than righties, and Pearce is supposed to help with that.

Espinal is seasonal age 23 and does a good job getting on base. However, he is old for A ball, so I would not expect too much from him.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Jose Altuve batting against Wilmer Font.
0.330 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.319 — Jean Segura batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.315 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.310 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.309 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wilmer Font.
0.307 — Austin Meadows batting against Eric Lauer.
0.307 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.301 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.301 — Josh Harrison batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.297 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Sal Romano.
0.295 — Elias Diaz batting against Eric Lauer.
0.295 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.293 — John Hicks batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.292 — Jon Jay batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.292 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.290 — Dee Gordon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.288 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.286 — Christian Yelich batting against Sal Romano.
0.286 — Leury Garcia batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.285 — Andrelton Simmons batting against David Hess.
0.285 — Eric Hosmer batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.285 — David Peralta batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.284 — Kevan Smith batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284 — Jose Abreu batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.284 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rich Hill.

One of my sources had Eric Lauer going for the Padres, but others had the Padres undecided. Be careful picking Pirates today. Yelich left the Brewers game Friday night with a back injury, and he is day to day.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.336, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Wilmer Font.
0.319, 0.749 — Jean Segura batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.310, 0.728 — Michael Brantley batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.330, 0.727 — Corey Dickerson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.309, 0.727 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wilmer Font.
0.315, 0.724 — Nick Castellanos batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.292, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against CC Sabathia.
0.273, 0.715 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chase Anderson.
0.301, 0.714 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.290, 0.714 — Dee Gordon batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.283, 0.711 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dylan Covey.
0.261, 0.709 — Albert Almora batting against Jose Berrios.
0.284, 0.708 — Gerardo Parra batting against Rich Hill.
0.297, 0.707 — Odubel Herrera batting against Erick Fedde.
0.276, 0.707 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.288, 0.705 — Jose Ramirez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.295, 0.704 — Whit Merrifield batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.704 — Andrelton Simmons batting against David Hess.
0.307, 0.704 — Starling Marte batting against Eric Lauer.
0.297, 0.703 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Sal Romano.
0.281, 0.701 — Adam Jones batting against Felix Pena.
0.292, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Andrew Suarez.
0.282, 0.700 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.265, 0.699 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Montgomery.
0.284, 0.699 — Jose Abreu batting against Yovani Gallardo.

It looks like a good day to double down on Altuve and Segura.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

Not much change in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings today. The top four, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, and Matt Carpenter stay the same. Nelson Cruz posted a 3 for 5 with a home run Thursday, and he moves into the fifth slot, ousting J.D. Martinez who went 0 for 3 with a walk. Martinez also falls behind the idle Jose Ramirez. It remains a very tight group at the top, with less than eight points separating the top seven.



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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Simple Care Tips for the Bathroom Sink

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

At the end of a long day, all we want to do is relax in our comfort zone. However, a home with a dingy bathroom isn’t exactly what we have in mind when we think of comfort, right? Have a pristine, hotel-like bathroom by practicing these tips:

Photo by Dan Watson on Unsplash

Keep your sink from getting scratched
Avoid abrasive cleaners, which can scratch your sink. Those scratches become magnets for grease, soap scum and dirt. Scrubbing the sink with a solution of 1 tablespoon ammonia to 1 gallon of water will dissolve them and bring back your sink’s shine. A solution of 1 teaspoon of trisodium phosphate to a gallon of water effectively removes grease and soap scum build up as well. Also known as TSP, trisodium phosphate, a degreasing agent, can be found at most hardware stores in white powder form. Source: HomeGuides.SFGate

Maintain a clean sink
Regularly wash your sink with soap and water. You can prevent dirt and stains from building up in the first place by gently washing your sink after every use. Use a little dish soap and a soft, non-abrasive sponge, and rinse thoroughly with clean water.  Source: WikiHow

Remove stains right away
De-stain surfaces with lemon juice. We’ve got a sure remedy for stained sinks: Erase those spots with a paste made of one-half cup of powdered borax and the juice of one-half lemon. Dab a sponge in the mixture, rub, and rinse with running water—it’ll work like a charm whether your sink is made of porcelain enamel, stainless steel, or any other material.

Get rid of mineral deposits
Use vinegar on your lime. The white spots that you have so much trouble cleaning off the faucets are lime deposits from mineral-rich hard water. They’re very easy to remove with a secret ingredient that’s already in your pantry: vinegar. Soak a paper towel in vinegar, and wrap the towel around the spotted area. Wait 10 minutes and then buff with a dry paper towel. This works well on all fixtures except brass or colored fixtures; using vinegar on these surfaces may discolor them. Source: RD

Our selection of trendy ceramic sinks will surely fit your budget and needs. Take a look and call us if you need any assistance.

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

The post Simple Care Tips for the Bathroom Sink appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.



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Can You Make A Sales Call Without Talking About Your Product?

Imagine you have an appointment with your ideal customer.  The only constraint is that you can’t talk about your product.

Could you make the call?  What would it look like?

I suppose you could talk about the weather, exchange chit chat about the World Cup, perhaps the latest baseball games or cricket matches.

But that wouldn’t be very satisfying to you  or the customer.  It probably would be a very short meeting, because your ideal customer probably doesn’t like to have her time wasted.

What could you possible talk about that would be a good use of the customer’s time?

A good start would be to talk about what the customer is most interested in talking about.

But you’d be wasting your time, and possibly be unqualified if you just spoke about any topic your customer is interested in.

You’d have to harness the discussion to talk about challenges they have about the problems you are the best in the world about solving.

But you’d be forced to talk about it from their perspective–not pitching your product features, functions, feeds, and speeds.

You’d be forced to get the customer to talk about the issues and how it impacts them and their organization.  You’d have to drill down asking them to define the issues specifically.  You’d probably then ask them how it impacts them.  You’d immediately get into how important the issue is in the scheme of things.

You might then guide the discussion to what they’d like to change, when, and why.  You’d probably follow that up by asking their goals or “what would it look like if that problem/challenge were eliminated?”

You might help them realize there might be different ways to look at or think about the issues.  Or you might help them understand they may be overlooking important aspects about the problem or things to consider as they look to eliminating the problem.  These, of course, wouldn’t be product/solution capabilities, these would be change and risk management issues.

Through the conversation, you would help the customer shape their thinking about their urgency in addressing the issues, the impact they of the change, you’d help them create a vision of a future state where they be moving past the problem, addressing new opportunities.

Properly executed, by the end of the meeting, the customer will be left with one question.

“How can you help me do this?”

It’s only then that your solution is relevant–in fact critical to them.  At that point they will be hungry to learn how you can help them.

Think about your next critical meeting with a customer.  Imagine what that meeting would look like without ever mentioning your products.  Even if the customer asks you, don’t give into the temptation, shift the conversation away from the product, focusing on the customer.  Develop your call plan, then execute it.

Magic happens when you do this.

 



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Thursday, June 28, 2018

Cleaning Tips for Stubborn Toilet Stains

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Are you finding it difficult to remove ring stains in your toilet? With the following ingredients, you’ll have plenty of effective solutions to choose from.

Image Source: Flickr

Coca-Cola
Get rid of stubborn toilet bowl stains with a 12-ounce can of Coca-Cola. Pour the full can around the rim of your toilet so it coats the toilet bowl and let the soda sit for an hour. The acid in the Coca-Cola will break down the stains. After an hour, scrub the bowl with a toilet brush and flush. Source: BrightNest

Vinegar
Most people reach for bleach to obliterate toilet germs and stains. However, Green living expert Mark Lallanilla says that plain old white vinegar is not only an effective cleaner, but also safer than chlorine bleach. To eliminate hard water stains, soak toilet paper in vinegar and place directly on top of the stain. Let the vinegar-soaked paper sit overnight. The next morning, flush to rinse and the stains should be gone.

Lallanilla says that full-strength vinegar also works great on grout and caulk. Use a spray bottle to saturate the area and let it soak in for at least an hour before rinsing. Source: TheSpruce

Water softener
Often times stubborn toilet bowl rings are directly the result of hard water deposits. While you can always take some time to clean the ring after it appears, it is usually better to stop the problem from ever forming in the first place. If you can afford to do it, install a water softener in your home and have it maintained properly. This should reduce a large number of water related problems not just in the bathroom, but throughout the rest of the house as well. Source: Cleaning.Tips

Borax powder
Borax powder is a very powerful cleaning agent that’s not found in a supermarket, but in a hardware store. Shut the water supply to the toilet tank and empty the bowl by flushing it once. Sprinkle the powder directly on the stains and rub them with a toilet brush. After scrubbing, let the powder sit for thirty minutes. Then reconnect the water supply to the tank and flush the toilet. Source: Home.HowStuffWork

Why not replace your toilet with top-of-the-line quality and design that still fits your budget? Choose from the ones we have on our website or call us for assistance!

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

The post Cleaning Tips for Stubborn Toilet Stains appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.



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Games of the Day

The Nationals try to tie the Phillies as as Tanner Roark faces Aaron Nola. Roark shaved 0.4 runs off his 2017 ERA of 4.67, but with the Nationals offense sputtering, his record stands at just 3-8. Nola knocked nearly a run off his 2017 ERA, bringing it down to 2.58. Part of that comes from cutting his home run rate in half.

There are no late games today, but one of the last pits the Astros against the Rays. Both teams are hot, as the Rays won five in a row against good competition, and the Astros leave home having a won their last ten games on the road, making them 16-3 over their last 19 games. Lance McCullers faces opener Ryne Stanek. McCullers is 5-2 on the road despite a 4.83 ERA. He’s allowed 7 of his 10 home runs away. Stanek serves as an opener, pitching just 10 innings in his seven starts. In those innings, he allowed four hits and four walks, no home runs, and struck out 10 for a 1.80 ERA.

Enjoy!



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Day of Reckoning

The Angels get an update on Shohei Ohtani today, Thursday:

Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani is set to be evaluated Thursday, and general manager Billy Eppler said the two-way player could be cleared to hit if his elbow injury has healed enough.

“If he was solely a DH, he would have been cleared right away,” Eppler said Wednesday on MLB Network Radio, “but because you are wanting that ligament to heal, to get that impact he brings on the mound, you want to – I don’t want to coin it the danger zone – but you want to get to the point where you are feeling that area has plenty of time to scar and heal. That’s what the three-week prescription is for, to buy you that time of scarring and healing.”

My feeling is that he’s a good enough hitter that they shouldn’t risk losing him entirely by allowing him to pitch. I felt the same way about Bo Jackson playing football, and doing so basically ended both careers.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.306 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brian Johnson.
0.304 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.299 — Jean Segura batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.298 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Mike Leake.
0.293 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.292 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.288 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jaime Barria.
0.285 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.284 — Mike Trout batting against Brian Johnson.
0.284 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Leake.
0.283 — Alen Hanson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.282 — Brandon Belt batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.281 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.280 — Nick Hundley batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277 — Mookie Betts batting against Jaime Barria.
0.277 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.275 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.274 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.274 — Austin Jackson batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.274 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.271 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.271 — Andrew McCutchen batting against Jonathan Gray.

There is a very light schedule today, allowing Brandon Crawford to pop to the top of the list. I will note that Gray is pitching in San Francisco tonight, and his home/road split is such that you might want to take Crawford’s ranking with a grain of salt. Crawford is 4 for 9 career against Gray, and McCutchen is one of the best hitters against Gray at 7 for 12.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.299, 0.741 — Jean Segura batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.268, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.288, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jaime Barria.
0.292, 0.719 — Gerardo Parra batting against Chris Stratton.
0.304, 0.719 — Adam Jones batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Brian Johnson.
0.285, 0.717 — Albert Almora batting against Clayton Kershaw.
0.314, 0.714 — Brandon Crawford batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.269, 0.713 — Scooter Gennett batting against Junior Guerra.
0.275, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.277, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Stratton.
0.281, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zack Greinke.
0.298, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.295, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting against Mike Leake.
0.281, 0.704 — Nolan Arenado batting against Chris Stratton.
0.270, 0.703 — Dee Gordon batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.262, 0.701 — Matt M Duffy batting against Lance McCullers.
0.274, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Chris Stratton.
0.277, 0.701 — Mookie Betts batting against Jaime Barria.
0.270, 0.696 — Matt Kemp batting against Jose Quintana.
0.245, 0.694 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Ryne Stanek.
0.255, 0.693 — Nick Castellanos batting against Sean Manaea.
0.269, 0.690 — Jon Jay batting against Trevor Richards.
0.284, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Leake.
0.284, 0.689 — Mike Trout batting against Brian Johnson.

A very different ranking. Segura faces Yacabonis, who only has 23 MLB innings under his belt. The NN will see him as pretty much a league average pitcher, but he walks a lot of batters. Again, this is a ranking that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Segura is the consensus first pick as well.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Best Batter Today

Another day of changes in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Jose Altuve still sits at the top of the list, but for the second day in a row Mike Trout gets passed. Alex Bregman‘s 3 for 5 with two doubles and a home run lift him from fifth to second, 0.3 points ahead of Trout, now in third place. Matt Carpenter drops to fourth, while J.D. Martinez supplants Jose Ramirez in the top five. Martinez collected two hits and a walk, including his 25th home run. Ramirez singled in five trips. The top seven are separated by just ten points. Trout did go one for four with a walk.



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Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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The Decline Of Corporate Culture

Peter Drucker once said, “Culture eats strategy for lunch….”

We all know how important culture is in aligning everyone in the organization and driving high performance.

Company cultures are built on a common set of values and beliefs.  They tend to focus on:

  • Who we are, as an organization.
  • Why we exist.
  • What we believe.
  • What our values are.
  • What we want to stand for–to our employees, customers, suppliers, shareholders, and communities.
  • What our common purpose is and how we remain purposeful.

Corporate culture tend not to describe what we make or sell.

In start-ups or small organizations, the culture is usually very strong, though people may have difficulty describing what it is.  Often, the start up is people with common beliefs, goals, vision coming together to achieve something.  They are obsessed by the common vision and are driven to succeed.

As the organization grows, but is still very small, it tends to attract like minded people.  As leaders bring on new employees, they tend to hire in their own image, finding people with the same vision, beliefs, values, and compulsion to succeed.  People in the organization may not know how to articulate it, but they recognize it’s elements when they see it, and they recognize people that are aligned with the culture.

Sometimes, in the early stages of a company, it’s the intensity of belief, the intensity of the culture that enables people to persevere, despite setbacks, missteps, bad luck.  It’s the culture that sustains the team through good and bad times.  The common belief they are doing something that matters to them and to others.

As the organization scales and grows rapidly, is where the threats to the culture first arise.  As the organization starts to hire rapidly, they may miss the cultural fit.  As newer people are hiring yet more people, they may be unconscious to the culture.  As we onboard these people, we may not be taking the time or even be able to articulate the culture.

Rapid growth and scaling make things difficult.  Things are changing every day, new people are coming on board.  We may not have the right processes, structures, mechanisms in place to address the rapid changes.  Organizations struggle to manage the pace of change, while still achieving the goals.  People in the organization may not know the answers to address the challenges that arise, they may not even know the questions.

Culture becomes an important grounding point for organizations to successfully navigate this rapid growth.  In the absence of knowing what to do, how to do it, the culture becomes the common point of alignment.  Does what we are trying to do align with our values, beliefs?  Does it reinforce what we stand for, what we are trying to achieve, who we are as an organization?  Does it align with and strengthen our purpose?

Inevitably as the organization grows, mis-hires are made.  People not aligned with our culture are hired.  They immediately stand out, create challenges, difficulties.  It’s not that they are bad people–they don’t understand or they aren’t aligned with the culture.

Great leaders recognize this.  They recognize that without a common culture and an intensity of commitment to that culture, the organization can no longer perform to its full potential.

They recognize that not having a strong culture is as dangerous as a rudderless ship–you lose your direction, or you can’t effectively pursue your purpose.  Soon the organization stop standing for anything–to it’s people, customers, suppliers, shareholders, and community.

It becomes just another company, but can never be a leader.  It can never stand out.

In the absence of culture, rules and bureaucracies begin to emerge.  It’s the only mechanism to survive and attempt to maintain focus.  The problem is, that organizations can’t create rules and bureaucracies to cover everything that might arise.  But when they do, the organization slows down to a stop, people become burdened with following the rules.  And when a situation outside the rules arises, people become paralyzed and can’t respond.

Culture provides the foundation to everything the organization does.  In the absence or processes, rules, culture provides the foundation to helping people figure things out.

I started my selling career in an organization that had a very strong and distinctive culture.  It was a Fortune 25 organization, but had maintained the culture through the years.  There were a few core principles to the culture:

  • Dedication to every client’s success
  • Innovation that matters—for our company and for the world
  • Trust and responsibility in all relationships (Sometimes stated as “respect for the individual.”)

Those principles were important to me and part of what attracted me to the company.  They were things that I already believed as an individual–and now I was part of a company that believed them, as well.  Beyond these basic values, there were a number of other things about the culture which really aligned with who I wanted to be, what I wanted to do.

What I learned about being successful was that if everything I did was consistent with these three principles, I could never to anything wrong.  Yes, I may have made mistakes, I may have failed to achieve something.  But if I adhered to these principles, regardless of the outcome, I couldn’t get in trouble.

I, also, learned that if I ever violated one of those principles, I would immediately be fired.  Even if I had “won a deal.”

It’s not strategy, it’s not execution, it’s not super products, great sales people or anything else companies do or make that sustains it through tough and good times.  These are important, but by themselves are insufficient for long term success.

It’s always the culture, values, beliefs that are the foundation to sustained success.  Everything else is built on top of the culture.

This also doesn’t mean that cultures don’t change and evolve.  They have to, but it is a slow purposeful evolution and never a “program du jour.”

Great leaders recognize this.  They become living examples of the cultural ideals.  In every meeting, in every decision, in every conversation, in every action they reinforce the culture.  They never do anything to compromise the culture.  They are relentless in only allowing people that buy into the culture to join the company.

And they do this every day, every month, every quarter, every year, every decade………

 

Afterword:  I was provoked to write this, reading an article in the WSJ:  Google Sets Rules To Curtail Employee Debates.

I have always had an impression that Google has a strong, distinctive culture.  Yet when I see that rules have to be set to drive acceptable behaviors within the organization, I being to wonder.  (I mentioned the first company I joined and the compelling culture.  At some point, the culture became less important and things changed.  To some degree it regained it’s values and principles, the culture did evolve.)

 



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