Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are only four games today, so I’ll list just the top ten.

0.338 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.311 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Shane Bieber.
0.301 — Michael Brantley batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.292 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Eric Lauer.
0.291 — Mason Williams batting against Eric Lauer.
0.290 — Daniel Murphy batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.289 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Shane Bieber.
0.288 — Billy McKinney batting against Shane Bieber.
0.287 — Melky Cabrera batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.287 — Curtis Casali batting against Eric Lauer.

Looks like it will be a nice offensive day for the Reds.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.338, 0.750 — Scooter Gennett batting against Eric Lauer.
0.290, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.301, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.311, 0.715 — Jose Peraza batting against Eric Lauer.
0.310, 0.704 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Shane Bieber.
0.287, 0.704 — Melky Cabrera batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.275, 0.700 — Javier Baez batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.270, 0.697 — Albert Almora batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.261, 0.696 — David Peralta batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.277, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sam Gaviglio.

Gennett and Peraza are the consensus first and second choices. The match-up between Murphy and Strasburg should be interesting.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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