Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Jean Segura batting against Marcus Stroman
0.323 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta
0.311 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.303 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Nick Pivetta
0.303 — Starlin Castro batting against Michael Fiers
0.296 — A.J. Pollock batting against Trevor Williams
0.295 — Robinson Cano batting against Marcus Stroman
0.294 — Nelson Cruz batting against Marcus Stroman
0.294 — Wil Myers batting against Dylan Covey

Both Segura and Stroman tend to collect and give up hits with few walks, so the pairing of the two should be a good one for generating hits. Segura is hot as well, with an 11 game hit streak. He’s batting .412 with a .464 OBP and 12 runs scored in that period.

The NN with Park sees the top ten list like this:

0.314, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.325, 0.747 — Jean Segura batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.323, 0.731 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.311, 0.730 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.289, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell.
0.296, 0.725 — A.J. Pollock batting against Trevor Williams.
0.303, 0.721 — Starlin Castro batting against Michael Fiers.
0.293, 0.717 — Brandon Drury batting against Trevor Williams.
0.295, 0.709 — Robinson Cano batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.271, 0.709 — Mookie Betts batting against Blake Snell.

Daniel Murphy, as is the case often, moves into the top spot, but Segura is just a hair behind him. Two Red Sox hitters, Bogaerts and Betts move up into the top ten, as well as Brandon Drury. Segura is the consensus pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the list of players with the longest streaks of consecutive PA without a hit.

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Danny Espinosa	38
Tyler Collins	25
Michael Freeman	25
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Raul Mondesi	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Conor Gillaspie	19
Johnny Cueto	18
Ivan Nova	17
Maikel Franco	16
Alen Hanson	16
Scott Feldman	16
Greg Bird	15
Matt Harvey	15
Bronson Arroyo	15
Amir Garrett	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Jimmy Nelson	14
Andrew Benintendi	14
Carlos Santana	14
Peter Kozma	14
Aaron Hicks	13
Roberto Perez	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Leonys Martin	12
Chris Coghlan	12
Gorkys Hernandez	12
Luke Maile	12
Jace Peterson	12
Jose Osuna	12
Christopher Herrmann	12
Jeremy Hellickson	12
Jeimer Candelario	12
Benjamin Gamel	12
Alex Avila	12
Kyle Schwarber	12
Alex Gordon	12
Todd Frazier	12
Tyler Anderson	12
Marcell Ozuna	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Jose Abreu	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Kelby Tomlinson	11
Craig Gentry	11
Daniel Straily	11
Joey Rickard	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Cameron Maybin	10
Gift Gift Ngoepe	10
Tanner Roark	10
Robbie Grossman	10
Dan Vogelbach	10
Kyle Hendricks	10
Mike Foltynewicz	10
Jered Weaver	10
Bartolo Colon	10
Taijuan Walker	10
Daniel Robertson	10

Good luck!

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