Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Phil Hughes
0.317 — Mookie Betts batting against Phil Hughes
0.312 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Phil Hughes
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta
0.302 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Phil Hughes
0.299 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero
0.298 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Rafael Montero
0.297 — A.J. Pollock batting against German Marquez
0.296 — Hanley Ramirez batting against Phil Hughes
0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez
0.295 — Christian Vazquez batting against Phil Hughes

Hughes allowed a high .304 BA this season but an okay .333 OBP this season. So his OBP against is made up almost entirely of hits (34 H, 4 BB, 1 HBP). The Red Sox players are good hitters, and Hughes is exactly the type of pitcher who gives a batter something to hit.

The NN with Park sees the day this way:

0.329, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Phil Hughes.
0.302, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.317, 0.735 — Mookie Betts batting against Phil Hughes.
0.312, 0.729 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Phil Hughes.
0.295, 0.728 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.297, 0.727 — A.J. Pollock batting against German Marquez.
0.299, 0.719 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.284, 0.719 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.298, 0.715 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Rafael Montero.
0.288, 0.711 — David Peralta batting against German Marquez.

The top four are the same in a slightly different order, but Xander Bogaerts tops both lists. It seems X marks the spot! Bogaerts is 5 for 12 against Hughes for his career with no walks nor strikeouts and one sacrifice fly. That’s a .385 hit average, an excellent mark. As always, your best pick will likely fail about 25% of the time.

Here is the list of players with the longest streak of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Danny Espinosa	25
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Raul Mondesi	20
Jose Lobaton	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Brad Miller	18
Jayson Werth	16
Michael Freeman	16
Gregory Polanco	15
Greg Bird	15
Leury Garcia	15
Ivan Nova	15
Jorge Bonifacio	14
Johnny Cueto	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Jeff Samardzija	13
Taylor Motter	13
Salvador Perez	13
Chris Heisey	13
Trevor Story	13
Austin Hedges	13
Matt Harvey	13
James McCann	13
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Leonys Martin	12
Patrick Corbin	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Andrelton Simmons	12
Daniel Nava	11
Scott Feldman	11
Jimmy Nelson	11
Amir Garrett	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Brian Dozier	11
Carlos Martinez	11
Lucas Duda	11
Jeremy Hellickson	11
Robinson Chirinos	11
Yasmany Tomas	11
Starling Marte	11
Andres Blanco	10
Dan Vogelbach	10
Jonathan Villar	10
Zach Eflin	10
Bartolo Colon	10
Jason Kipnis	10
Jered Weaver	10
Edwin Encarnacion	10
Nicholas Franklin	10
Bronson Arroyo	10
Chase Utley	10
Randal Grichuk	10
Ryan Schimpf	10
Stephen Strasburg	10

Espinosa’s slump is really bad, as he struck out eight times in his last 22 PA over five games. He collected two walks, but one of them was intentional.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pHgGk5