Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.342 — Starlin Castro batting against Brett Anderson
0.334 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.323 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Anderson
0.313 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.306 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson
0.305 — Brandon Drury batting against Tyler Anderson
0.305 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez
0.303 — Didi Gregorius batting against Brett Anderson
0.303 — Chris Owings batting against Tyler Anderson
0.302 — Michael Moustakas batting against Josh Tomlin
0.302 — Eric Hosmer batting against Josh Tomlin
0.302 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Brett Anderson

Castro is the type of low walk player who would do well in hitting streaks if he got his batting average high enough. In his seasonal age 27 season, he’s doing just that. It also looks like the Andersons cornered the market on hits allowed.

The NN produces this list:

0.342, 0.749 — Starlin Castro batting against Brett Anderson.
0.323, 0.746 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.334, 0.739 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.305, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.313, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.291, 0.722 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.305, 0.720 — Brandon Drury batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.281, 0.717 — Charles Blackmon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.275, 0.715 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Patrick Corbin.

There’s very good agreement between the two lists, the biggest difference coming from the NN ranking Daniel Murphy fourth, when the Log5 did not have him in the top 12. The NN also pulls in some Rockies batters, as the three-year weighted hit average at Coors is now a whopping .272. Starlin Castro is the unanimous pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the list of players with the current longest stretch of consecutive plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Danny Espinosa	28
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Raul Mondesi	20
Jose Lobaton	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Brad Miller	18
Chris Heisey	17
Trevor Story	17
Michael Freeman	17
James McCann	17
Greg Bird	15
Austin Hedges	15
Ivan Nova	15
Yasmany Tomas	15
Brian Dozier	15
Johnny Cueto	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Steven Souza	13
Carlos Santana	13
Bronson Arroyo	13
Matt Harvey	13
Jeff Samardzija	13
Taylor Motter	13
Russell Martin	13
Daniel Nava	12
Chase Utley	12
Tyler Collins	12
Patrick Corbin	12
Leonys Martin	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Jimmy Nelson	12
Carlos Martinez	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Starling Marte	11
Lucas Duda	11
Jeremy Hellickson	11
Robinson Chirinos	11
Amir Garrett	11
Scott Feldman	11
Derek Dietrich	10
Jered Weaver	10
Abraham Almonte	10
Zach Eflin	10
Dan Vogelbach	10
Jason Castro	10
Andres Blanco	10
Bartolo Colon	10

Danny Espinosa may never get a hit again.

Good luck!

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