Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.308 — Josh Harrison batting against Zach Davies
0.300 — Kevin Pillar batting against Alexander Cobb
0.296 — Starlin Castro batting against Jon Lester
0.293 — Buster Posey batting against Scott Feldman
0.292 — Michael Trout batting against Michael Fiers
0.288 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Harvey
0.287 — Brandon Phillips batting against Michael Wacha
0.287 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.282 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Chatwood
0.279 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Alexander Cobb
0.279 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Fiers

It’s nice to see Mike Trout make the list. Trout walks a lot, so his hit average tends not to be that high. He is hitting for such a high average this season, however, his HA is up there. He also owns the longest current hit streak in the majors at 17, although he is day to day with a hamstring injury.

There would have been more Pirates on the list against Davies, but two of them are on the disabled list and one of them is suspended.

The NN with Park produces this top ten:

0.287, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.277, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.287, 0.719 — Brandon Phillips batting against Michael Wacha.
0.293, 0.718 — Buster Posey batting against Scott Feldman.
0.282, 0.718 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.296, 0.716 — Starlin Castro batting against Jon Lester.
0.288, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Harvey.
0.308, 0.716 — Josh Harrison batting against Zach Davies.
0.269, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.276, 0.713 — Charles Blackmon batting against Taijuan Walker.

This is a very different list, with Harrison and Murphy swapping the one and eight slots. Mike Trout does not make this list. Note that while Trout owns a higher batting average than Murphy, Muprhy’s 2017 hit average (regressed to 200 PA) is 14 points higher, .288 versus .274. Buster Posey appears to be the consensus pick today, fourth on both lists. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the list of current longest streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Danny Espinosa	28
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Brad Miller	22
Raul Mondesi	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jose Lobaton	19
Austin Hedges	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Steven Souza	17
Tyler Collins	17
Michael Freeman	17
James McCann	17
Chris Heisey	17
Ivan Nova	15
Greg Bird	15
Brian Dozier	15
Patrick Corbin	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Johnny Cueto	14
Abraham Almonte	14
Amir Garrett	14
Jeff Samardzija	13
Russell Martin	13
Jose Bautista	13
Nomar Mazara	13
Bronson Arroyo	13
Matt Harvey	13
Derek Dietrich	12
Chase Utley	12
Luke Maile	12
Jimmy Nelson	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Leonys Martin	12
Tyler Anderson	12
Starling Marte	11
Freddie Freeman	11
Lucas Duda	11
Jeremy Hellickson	11
Scott Feldman	11
Manuel Pina	11
Willson Contreras	11
Carlos Martinez	11
Andrew McCutchen	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Todd Frazier	11
Alex Gordon	11
Dan Vogelbach	10
Trea Turner	10
Alen Hanson	10
Zach Eflin	10
Bartolo Colon	10
Jered Weaver	10
Andres Blanco	10

Good luck!

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