Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman
0.324 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Kevin Gausman
0.307 — Starlin Castro batting against Rookie Davis
0.295 — Trea Turner batting against Kevin Gausman
0.287 — Bryce Harper batting against Kevin Gausman
0.287 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marcus Stroman
0.285 — Michael Brantley batting against Marcus Stroman
0.283 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman
0.282 — Justin Turner batting against Trevor Williams
0.281 — Yonder Alonso batting against Ricky Nolasco

There is a limited schedule Monday night, and I’m not surprised to see a number of Nationals on the list against Gausman. The Orioles starters allowed a ton of hits this season. Zimmerman, with his lofty batting average after two down years is finally starting to climb into the leader boards.

Note that Bryce Harper is day to day, and Michael Brantley left the Indians game Sunday with an ankle injury.

The NN sees the top ten like this:

0.332, 0.760 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.324, 0.722 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.307, 0.722 — Starlin Castro batting against Rookie Davis.
0.295, 0.716 — Trea Turner batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.270, 0.706 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.282, 0.704 — Justin Turner batting against Trevor Williams.
0.267, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.287, 0.699 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.277, 0.699 — Mike Trout batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.269, 0.697 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.285, 0.697 — Michael Brantley batting against Marcus Stroman.

Trout is also day to day. The two systems are in rare agreement on the top four today. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the current list of longest streaks of consecutive plate appearances without a hit.

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Danny Espinosa	31
Brad Miller	26
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Chris Heisey	21
Raul Mondesi	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Austin Hedges	19
Michael Freeman	18
Tyler Collins	17
Jose Bautista	17
Abraham Almonte	17
Johnny Cueto	16
Brian Dozier	15
Trea Turner	15
Ivan Nova	15
Greg Bird	15
Nomar Mazara	14
Scott Feldman	14
Amir Garrett	14
Alex Gordon	14
Patrick Corbin	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Bronson Arroyo	13
Matt Harvey	13
David Peralta	13
Jeff Samardzija	13
Tyler Anderson	12
Chase Utley	12
Michael Taylor	12
Travis D'Arnaud	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Jace Peterson	12
Jeremy Hellickson	12
Alen Hanson	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Brandon Belt	12
Leonys Martin	12
Luke Maile	12
Orlando Arcia	12
Jimmy Nelson	12
Lucas Duda	11
Carlos Martinez	11
Didi Gregorius	11
Andrew McCutchen	11
Jaime Garcia	11
Peter Kozma	11
Starling Marte	11
Chase Headley	11
Chris Carter	11
Conor Gillaspie	11
Manuel Pina	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Zach Eflin	10
Bartolo Colon	10
Tucker Barnhart	10
Jered Weaver	10
Taijuan Walker	10
Tanner Roark	10
Dan Vogelbach	10
Eduardo Escobar	10
Christopher Herrmann	10
Michael Conforto	10
Maikel Franco	10
Steve Pearce	10
Tyler Flowers	10

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2qRNANh