Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.304 — Mike Trout batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.299 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.298 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.296 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.296 — Albert Pujols batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.294 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.294 — Rene Rivera batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.291 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.290 — Zack Cozart batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.288 — Albert Almora batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286 — Jefry Marte batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.285 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.284 — Javier Baez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.282 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.282 — Michael Brantley batting against Doug Fister.
0.281 — Ian Kinsler batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.280 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Chris Archer.
0.280 — Justin Upton batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.280 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.279 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.278 — Manny Machado batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.274 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Homer Bailey.
0.273 — Thomas Pham batting against James Shields.
0.273 — Martin Prado batting against Zach Eflin.

Yesterday, Jordan Zimmermann and Sonny Gray pitched very well. If you went with players from the Rays or the Yankees, you probably had a bad day. That’s the problem with good pitchers in long-term slumps, every once in a while they come out of them for a game. Today that pitcher is Alex Cobb. He’s allowed 30 hits in 11 2/3 innings. The Angels should hit well against him, unless he picks today to mend his problem.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.293, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Montgomery.
0.294, 0.715 — Starlin Castro batting against Zach Eflin.
0.282, 0.714 — Jean Segura batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.321, 0.712 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.280, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.296, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.285, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Zach Eflin.
0.298, 0.703 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.282, 0.700 — Michael Brantley batting against Doug Fister.
0.291, 0.696 — Nick Castellanos batting against Chris Archer.
0.272, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Doug Fister.
0.288, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.258, 0.692 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.250, 0.692 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jakob Junis.
0.271, 0.692 — Ender Inciarte batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.279, 0.691 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.278, 0.691 — Manny Machado batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.274, 0.690 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Homer Bailey.
0.273, 0.690 — Martin Prado batting against Zach Eflin.
0.304, 0.689 — Mike Trout batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.266, 0.687 — Jose Abreu batting against Michael Wacha.
0.284, 0.684 — Javier Baez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.272, 0.684 — Jose Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.267, 0.682 — Marcell Ozuna batting against James Shields.
0.273, 0.682 — Thomas Pham batting against James Shields.
0.269, 0.682 — Paul DeJong batting against James Shields.

The NN does a better job of looking at a poor number from a pitcher, especially a start of the season poor number, and putting it in context. Jose Altuve is once again the pick of the day, as his regressed 2018 hit average stands at .307. His actual hit average is .313. Simmons is the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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