Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.312 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.300 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Moore.
0.298 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.292 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Moore.
0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.289 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova.
0.288 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jose Urena.
0.284 — Evan Longoria batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283 — Gregor Blanco batting against Clayton Richard.
0.283 — Austin Jackson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.280 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.279 — Nick Hundley batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.278 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.278 — Tyler Naquin batting against Matt Moore.
0.276 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.275 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.274 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Clayton Richard.
0.274 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.274 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.273 — Johnathan Williamson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.272 — Brandon Belt batting against Clayton Richard.
0.272 — Mitch Haniger batting against Brett Anderson.

Brett Anderson makes his 2018 debut, so for today he is seen as a league average pitcher in terms of 2018. Over the previous two seasons he allowed a high BA with a low walk rate. Both Gordon and Segura and high hit average players, so the top of the Mariners order provides a good match-up today.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.312, 0.740 — Dee Gordon batting against Brett Anderson.
0.298, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Brett Anderson.
0.252, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Luis Severino.
0.302, 0.712 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.
0.300, 0.711 — Michael Brantley batting against Matt Moore.
0.292, 0.710 — Jose Ramirez batting against Matt Moore.
0.280, 0.708 — J.D. Martinez batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.288, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.289, 0.701 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.701 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jose Urena.
0.278, 0.697 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wade Miley.
0.279, 0.692 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.267, 0.692 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.262, 0.691 — Starlin Castro batting against Aaron Nola.
0.276, 0.691 — Albert Almora batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.274, 0.689 — Jose Peraza batting against Wade Miley.
0.275, 0.689 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Anderson.
0.253, 0.688 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yu Darvish.
0.268, 0.687 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.260, 0.686 — Eric Hosmer batting against Derek Holland.
0.283, 0.686 — Austin Jackson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.259, 0.686 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.270, 0.684 — Trey Mancini batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.265, 0.682 — Wilson Ramos batting against Michael Fulmer.

The two systems are in agreement on Dee Gordon, and the see Segura and Posey tied for the consensus second pick. Posey hits Richard well.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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