Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.312 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.305 — Jed Lowrie batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.305 — Michael Moustakas batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.299 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.293 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.292 — Jon Jay batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291 — Trea Turner batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.290 — Nick Markakis batting against Ty Blach.
0.289 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ty Blach.
0.287 — Ender Inciarte batting against Ty Blach.
0.286 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.284 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.
0.284 — Salvador Perez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.283 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz.
0.283 — Michael Brantley batting against Sonny Gray.
0.282 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.281 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278 — Ozzie Albies batting against Ty Blach.
0.278 — Matt Kemp batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.278 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Ty Blach.
0.276 — Albert Pujols batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.276 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.276 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Greinke.

Altuve versus Greinke is a bit of a surprise as the number one Log5 match-up. While Altuve is a great hitter, Greinke is a pretty good pitcher. This season, however, Greinke is giving up a lot of hits without a lot of walks. Batters are hitting .254 against him, but with a .281 OBP. Altuve is 9 for 21 against Greinke in his career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.313, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.293, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.312, 0.719 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.305, 0.718 — Jed Lowrie batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.284, 0.717 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Steven Matz.
0.305, 0.713 — Michael Moustakas batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.299, 0.708 — Howie Kendrick batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.283, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Steven Matz.
0.272, 0.705 — J.D. Martinez batting against Cole Hamels.
0.270, 0.705 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.287, 0.704 — Ender Inciarte batting against Ty Blach.
0.283, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Sonny Gray.
0.291, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.289, 0.702 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ty Blach.
0.292, 0.701 — Jon Jay batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.273, 0.699 — Jose Ramirez batting against Sonny Gray.
0.290, 0.695 — Nick Markakis batting against Ty Blach.
0.272, 0.693 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Zack Greinke.
0.273, 0.693 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyler Mahle.
0.276, 0.692 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jason Hammel.
0.275, 0.690 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Greinke.
0.278, 0.690 — Matt Kemp batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.281, 0.689 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.276, 0.688 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.268, 0.688 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Tyler Mahle.

There’s very good agreement today between the two systems. Simmons is the consensus second choice. Realamuto, ranked 25th by the NN, is tied for the longest current hit streak in the majors.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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