Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.346 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Wainwright
0.336 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Adam Wainwright
0.328 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Wainwright
0.325 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Bartolo Colon
0.321 — Miguel Rojas batting against Adam Wainwright
0.315 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Adam Wainwright
0.301 — Justin Turner batting against Ivan Nova
0.299 — Charles Blackmon batting against John Lackey
There are a lot of high ERA pitchers going in tonight’s games, but the Log5 method singles out Adam Wainwright as the pitcher to hit. He allowed a .371 BA so far this season with 10 walks in 30 innings. He is extremely hittable.
The NN with Park draws up this list:
0.346, 0.747 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.322, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.315, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Wily Peralta.
0.294, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.328, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.294, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.299, 0.726 — Charles Blackmon batting against John Lackey.
0.336, 0.725 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.297, 0.723 — Mookie Betts batting against Wily Peralta.
0.325, 0.722 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright.
The NN list is still Adam Wainwright heavy, but the better hitters in the league get mixed in as well. J.T. Realmuto is the consensus choice. Realmuto is a successful hacker. He doesn’t take many walks, tends to put the ball in play and collect hits. It really is the perfect storm of pitcher and hitter. As always your best pick for the day will likely fail about 25% of the time.
Here is the current list of players with the longest streak of plate appearances without a hit. Note that Dee Gordon makes the list.
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pg6SPh
No comments:
Post a Comment