Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.294 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Chris Tillman.
0.289 — Jed Lowrie batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.288 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.287 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.286 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.286 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Michael Moustakas batting against Michael Fiers.
0.277 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.277 — Michael Brantley batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.277 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.271 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.270 — Mike Trout batting against Chris Tillman.
0.268 — Ozzie Albies batting against Jason Vargas.
0.267 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Jason Vargas.
0.267 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.267 — Albert Pujols batting against Chris Tillman.
0.267 — Jose Ramirez batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.267 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Chris Tillman.
0.264 — Starling Marte batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.264 — Rene Rivera batting against Chris Tillman.
0.264 — Jon Jay batting against Michael Fiers.
0.263 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Barria.
0.263 — Dansby Swanson batting against Jason Vargas.
0.263 — Johan Camargo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.263 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Julio Teheran.

Simmons, in his age 28 season, is easily having the best offensive year of his career. He’s 2 for 7 against Tillman for his career, but with two walks and no strikeouts. So he appears to see the Tillman’s pitches well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.288, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.287, 0.706 — Michael Brantley batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.286, 0.704 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jason Vargas.
0.238, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Sean Manaea.
0.294, 0.701 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Chris Tillman.
0.277, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.277, 0.700 — Michael Brantley batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.289, 0.700 — Jed Lowrie batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.267, 0.699 — J.D. Martinez batting against Mike Minor.
0.286, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jason Vargas.
0.267, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Joseph Biagini.
0.281, 0.693 — Michael Moustakas batting against Michael Fiers.
0.261, 0.690 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Lance McCullers.
0.271, 0.687 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.227, 0.684 — Jean Segura batting against Sean Manaea.
0.264, 0.683 — Starling Marte batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.263, 0.682 — Manny Machado batting against Jaime Barria.
0.263, 0.680 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Julio Teheran.
0.259, 0.680 — Mookie Betts batting against Mike Minor.
0.256, 0.679 — Didi Gregorius batting against Lance McCullers.
0.261, 0.679 — Nick Castellanos batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.277, 0.678 — Nick Markakis batting against Jason Vargas.
0.264, 0.675 — Jon Jay batting against Michael Fiers.
0.244, 0.674 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Minor.
0.253, 0.674 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mike Minor.

Altuve pops to the top of the list on a day with low probabilities of hits overall. He is 4 for 11 with one K against Tanaka in the regular season, 2 for 9 with a K in the post-season. That’s 6 for 20 with 2 K career, which isn’t bad against a pitcher of Tanaka’s quality. Altuve is also the consensus first choice, with Simmons and Brantley tied for second.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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