Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.328 — Didi Gregorius batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.312 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.304 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.302 — Miguel Andujar batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.302 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Kris Medlen.
0.292 — Aaron Judge batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.291 — Gleyber Torres batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.286 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286 — Mike Trout batting against Mike Leake.
0.285 — Starlin Castro batting against Sal Romano.
0.284 — Howie Kendrick batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.284 — Tyler Austin batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.284 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Mike Leake.
0.283 — Jed Lowrie batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.280 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.280 — Albert Pujols batting against Mike Leake.
0.279 — Trey Mancini batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.278 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.278 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against German Marquez.
0.278 — Austin Romine batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.277 — A.J. Cole batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.277 — Rene Rivera batting against Mike Leake.
0.277 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Sal Romano.

Tomlin is in the midst of a horrible year. He’s allowing a .360 BA and a .400 OBP, so that latter number is mostly hits. He allowed 32 hits in 18 2/3 innings, and 10 of those were home runs. It seems a player just needs to touch the ball with the bat to reach base against Tomlin this season. He is so bad, I have to assume he is suffering from some kind of minor injury that threw him off.

Log5 says pick a Yankee, any Yankee.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.294, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Kris Medlen.
0.333, 0.737 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.304, 0.733 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328, 0.728 — Didi Gregorius batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.312, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
0.294, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.263, 0.713 — Dee Gordon batting against Garrett Richards.
0.302, 0.708 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.279, 0.707 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.286, 0.706 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.285, 0.705 — Starlin Castro batting against Sal Romano.
0.274, 0.704 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.284, 0.701 — Howie Kendrick batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.283, 0.698 — Jed Lowrie batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.278, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.274, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.277, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Sal Romano.
0.278, 0.694 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against German Marquez.
0.273, 0.694 — Odubel Herrera batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.260, 0.692 — Michael Brantley batting against CC Sabathia.
0.279, 0.691 — Trey Mancini batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.269, 0.689 — Scooter Gennett batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.274, 0.688 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.264, 0.685 — Eric Hosmer batting against Walker Buehler.
0.302, 0.684 — Miguel Andujar batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.242, 0.684 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.

Altuve stopped the latest NN streak yesterday with an 0 for 5. Torreyes is the consensus first pick but he doesn’t start games very often. Among players likely to start, Didi Gregorious is the consensus first pick.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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