Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Jed Lowrie batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.309 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.297 — J.D. Martinez batting against Doug Fister.
0.294 — Marcus Semien batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.292 — Nolan Arenado batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.292 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.292 — Chad Pinder batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.291 — Mark Canha batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.289 — Kevin Pillar batting against Chris Archer.
0.286 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.286 — Matt Olson batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.285 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.285 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.284 — Daniel Mengden batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.284 — Christian Yelich batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.283 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.282 — Wilmer Font batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.281 — Sean Manaea batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Doug Fister.
0.281 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.280 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.279 — Jonathan Villar batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.279 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.278 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Estrada.
0.278 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Kuhl.

That is a huge projected hit average for Jed Lowrie against Cobb. Cobb’s allowed a .425 BA this season with very few walks. His highly regressed hit average still comes in at .302. Lowrie is hitting .353 with a decent number of walks, and his regressed hit average comes in at .297. The league average is .220 (for non-pitchers). So Lowrie is a batter high above league average, Cobb is a pitcher high above league average, so he should make Lowrie even better. The three year numbers are not nearly that high, but both are well above the .220. Put it all together, and Lowrie has a great chance of sticking Cobb with a hit.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.351, 0.739 — Jed Lowrie batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.270, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt D Koch.
0.297, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Doug Fister.
0.277, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Shohei Ohtani.
0.292, 0.716 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.292, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.285, 0.701 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.260, 0.700 — Jean Segura batting against Shohei Ohtani.
0.281, 0.699 — Starlin Castro batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.280, 0.696 — Manny Machado batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.281, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Doug Fister.
0.268, 0.695 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.309, 0.694 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.262, 0.692 — Jose Ramirez batting against Domingo German.
0.267, 0.691 — Michael Brantley batting against Domingo German.
0.279, 0.691 — Matt Kemp batting against Eric Lauer.
0.278, 0.691 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Estrada.
0.265, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Michael Soroka.
0.274, 0.689 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Doug Fister.
0.283, 0.688 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.269, 0.688 — Albert Almora batting against Michael Wacha.
0.289, 0.685 — Kevin Pillar batting against Chris Archer.
0.266, 0.684 — Eddie Rosario batting against James Shields.
0.256, 0.684 — Jose Abreu batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.261, 0.684 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Doug Fister.

This is a great example of how the NN establishes weights Altuve doesn’t make the top 25 in the Log5 calculation, but he’s such a good hitter, he comes in second here. The NN does confirm that Jed Lowrie is the best choice today, with J.D. Martinez the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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