Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Dee Gordon batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.317 — Howie Kendrick batting against Clayton Richard.
0.311 — Trea Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.299 — Jose Abreu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Vargas.
0.298 — Matthew Adams batting against Clayton Richard.
0.297 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.297 — Jean Segura batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.297 — Anthony Rendon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.295 — Jose Peraza batting against Jason Vargas.
0.291 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Luis Castillo.
0.290 — Tim Anderson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.289 — Wilmer Difo batting against Clayton Richard.
0.289 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.286 — Leury Garcia batting against Ivan Nova.
0.284 — Mike Trout batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.282 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.280 — Matt Kemp batting against Zachary Godley.
0.280 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.279 — Joey Votto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.278 — Andrew Stevenson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.278 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.278 — Welington Castillo batting against Ivan Nova.
0.277 — Odubel Herrera batting against Derek Holland.

With a .343 BA and a .367 OBP this year, Dee Gordon is a perfect hit streak player. His batting average is high, and it accounts for most of his offensive value. If you like the hot hand, Andrelton Simmons owns an 11-game hit streak, and is batting .444, 20 for 45 in that time.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.318, 0.744 — Dee Gordon batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.305, 0.722 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.297, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.317, 0.720 — Howie Kendrick batting against Clayton Richard.
0.311, 0.718 — Trea Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.244, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.282, 0.714 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.299, 0.707 — Jose Abreu batting against Ivan Nova.
0.299, 0.706 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jason Vargas.
0.277, 0.705 — Odubel Herrera batting against Derek Holland.
0.272, 0.703 — Jose Ramirez batting against Wade Miley.
0.280, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.276, 0.701 — Michael Brantley batting against Wade Miley.
0.289, 0.698 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.295, 0.697 — Jose Peraza batting against Jason Vargas.
0.278, 0.697 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.280, 0.696 — Matt Kemp batting against Zachary Godley.
0.291, 0.695 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Luis Castillo.
0.298, 0.694 — Matthew Adams batting against Clayton Richard.
0.297, 0.693 — Anthony Rendon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.284, 0.692 — Mike Trout batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.266, 0.691 — Wilson Ramos batting against Sean Newcomb.
0.297, 0.691 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Ivan Nova.
0.266, 0.690 — Jed Lowrie batting against Lance McCullers.
0.264, 0.690 — Starlin Castro batting against Jen-Ho Tseng.

The two systems are in agreement on Dee Gordon. Kendrick and Simmons tie for the second spot. The top four on this list have not seen the opposing pitcher much. Segura is 3 for 7 against Stroman with 2 K. Altuve is 4 for 23 against Manaea, .174.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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