Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.316 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.296 — Buster Posey batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.295 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.290 — Nick Castellanos batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.289 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.287 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.283 — Manny Machado batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.283 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sal Romano.
0.282 — Jose Peraza batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.277 — George Springer batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.277 — Nick Hundley batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.277 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.277 — J.D. Martinez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.274 — Kevin Pillar batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.274 — Starlin Castro batting against Jose Quintana.
0.273 — Robinson Cano batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.273 — Michael Moustakas batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.272 — Ryon Healy batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.271 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.270 — Javier Baez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.269 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.268 — Mitch Haniger batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.266 — Evan Longoria batting against Nick Pivetta.

Gordon is 5 for 15 against Garcia with no strikeouts and no walks. Gordon puts the ball in play with this match-up. Altuve is 7 for 14 against Mengden with one strikeout and no walks. Log5 says these batters should hit well against these pitchers, and it’s nice to see they are right.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.325, 0.751 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.316, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.295, 0.717 — Jean Segura batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.289, 0.717 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.277, 0.713 — J.D. Martinez batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.290, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.296, 0.711 — Buster Posey batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.271, 0.701 — Odubel Herrera batting against Chris Stratton.
0.287, 0.700 — Scooter Gennett batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.283, 0.700 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Sal Romano.
0.280, 0.699 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.283, 0.697 — Manny Machado batting against Eric Skoglund.
0.274, 0.695 — Starlin Castro batting against Jose Quintana.
0.254, 0.694 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jaime Barria.
0.251, 0.694 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jaime Barria.
0.255, 0.693 — Matt Kemp batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.256, 0.691 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Rick Porcello.
0.282, 0.691 — Jose Peraza batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.273, 0.688 — Michael Moustakas batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.263, 0.688 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.277, 0.688 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.252, 0.686 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jaime Barria.
0.272, 0.685 — Ryon Healy batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.270, 0.684 — Javier Baez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.254, 0.683 — Wilson Ramos batting against Julio Teheran.
0.265, 0.683 — Mike Trout batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.273, 0.683 — Robinson Cano batting against Jaime Garcia.

The two system agree on the top two batters today. Both have very high probabilities of getting a hit, giving you a 56% chance of a double down working. I’m a bit agnostic on the double down. It should not make that much difference if you pick one today and one tomorrow, or two today. When both probabilities are high like this, it’s a better day to execute the strategy.

There is a prize when your streak reaches a multiple of five, an entry to win World Series tickets. I don’t double down on days when I’m one away from reaching a five. As my streak gets longer, I don’t double down either, since survival that day becomes my top concern. I will double down with these two today.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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