Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.319 — Nick Castellanos batting against Matt Moore.
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.299 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.290 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Matt Moore.
0.289 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.286 — Leonys Martin batting against Matt Moore.
0.284 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.284 — James McCann batting against Matt Moore.
0.283 — John Hicks batting against Matt Moore.
0.282 — Victor Martinez batting against Matt Moore.
0.281 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.279 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.277 — Carlos Correa batting against Brett Anderson.
0.269 — Grayson J Greiner batting against Matt Moore.
0.269 — Jose Iglesias batting against Matt Moore.
0.268 — Matt Boyd batting against Matt Moore.
0.267 — Mike Gerber batting against Matt Moore.
0.267 — Nick Hundley batting against Zach Eflin.
0.266 — Michael Fulmer batting against Matt Moore.
0.265 — Juan Lagares batting against Homer Bailey.
0.265 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.263 — Victor Reyes batting against Matt Moore.
0.262 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Matt Moore.
0.261 — JaCoby Jones batting against Matt Moore.
0.258 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.258 — Evan Longoria batting against Zach Eflin.
0.258 — George Springer batting against Brett Anderson.
0.258 — Jose Peraza batting against P.J. Conlon.

It should be a good evening for the Tigers, as Matt Moore allows a .344/.413/.536 slash line this year. Castellanos is a high hit, low walk hitter.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.315, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
0.319, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Matt Moore.
0.299, 0.712 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Homer Bailey.
0.289, 0.708 — Odubel Herrera batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.284, 0.707 — Buster Posey batting against Zach Eflin.
0.279, 0.702 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
0.281, 0.698 — Jed Lowrie batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.277, 0.693 — Carlos Correa batting against Brett Anderson.
0.254, 0.685 — Starlin Castro batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.256, 0.680 — Eddie Rosario batting against John Gant.
0.290, 0.676 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Matt Moore.
0.258, 0.676 — Jose Peraza batting against 18213.
0.267, 0.675 — Nick Hundley batting against Zach Eflin.
0.255, 0.674 — Scooter Gennett batting against P.J. Conlon.
0.282, 0.672 — Victor Martinez batting against Matt Moore.
0.248, 0.671 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Fernando Romero.
0.265, 0.670 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Homer Bailey.
0.244, 0.670 — Trea Turner batting against Tyson Ross.
0.249, 0.669 — Yadier Molina batting against Fernando Romero.
0.246, 0.669 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyson Ross.
0.242, 0.669 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.283, 0.668 — John Hicks batting against Matt Moore.
0.256, 0.668 — Austin Jackson batting against Zach Eflin.
0.254, 0.666 — Josh Reddick batting against Brett Anderson.
0.240, 0.665 — Eric Hosmer batting against Stephen Strasburg.
0.284, 0.665 — James McCann batting against Matt Moore.
0.255, 0.665 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Jeff Samardzija.

This is a tough one to call. Anderson’s three-year numbers are poor, and Altuve’s three-year numbers are great, which is why Altuve pops to the top of the list. Castellanos versus Moore is better this year. If Anderson has turned a corner Altuve might not do as well. Of course, Moore might find himself as Jordan Zimmermann did recently. They are the consensus 1-2 picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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